There is an Associated Press article from yesterday that highlights the unprecedented investment that is being put together to mobilize Republican volunteers to turn out voters for the GOP ticket this November, headed up by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. This operation represents a significant financial commitment by Team Schwarzenegger to a ground game. He has hired top notch operatives to head up the effort, and has assembled a field staff many-dozens strong that is deployed throughout the Golden State. The Governor should be applauded for his financial commitment to turning out Republican voters. This level of resource-commitment is truly unprecidented!
However, to use the proverbial saying — "You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink" — the key component to the success of the large scale effort is going to be the volunteers (the target goal is to mobilize 90,000 volunteers). Therein lies the single biggest challenge for the State GOP’s Victory Program. Governor Schwarzenegger must do more than invest dollars and professional staff into a statewide mobilization effort — he must campaign on themes and on issues that are going to excite Republican volunteers. In this case, good Republican policies lead to good Republican volunteerism.
First and foremost, I should make it abundantly clear (which I do quite often on this page) that I support Arnold Schwarzenegger for re-election. So my observations here are well-intentioned, with the idea that they will hopefully spur some thought or contemplation by those in a position to give him input.
Right now, core GOP volunteers are not energized and excited. I know this because I interact with them all of the time. I also get a lot of feedback as this website is read by many, many Republican volunteers. The lion’s share of their frustration is stemming from the DC calamity — where Republicans are dropping the ball on the illegal immigration enforcement issue, and have completely squandered the GOP mandate to be the party of lower spending as federal largesse has risen substantially under the Elephant banner. These are not California-specific creations, but it is a national downer for GOP enthusiasm.
This makes the challenge even greater for Governor Schwarzenegger, who, being at the top of the GOP ticket, is going to be the primary attraction to get GOP volunteers involved. To do this, the Governor needs to have a campaign theme that is going to get these disenchanted GOPers excited. He needs to create the energy and enthusiasm so that his large investment in a Victory Program can pay off. Without the volunteers, the effort will finish exactly where it starts — with a core group of paid workers.
Right now, the Governor seems to be intent on framing his campaign around a theme of spending. He is trumpeting his infrastructure spending plan as a key reason for why Californians should get out and vote. He is emphasizing his environment credentials, as well as his commitment to making a taxpayer investment in preschool education. These themes may all resonate with centrist voters, but they are not going to excite core GOP volunteers. While most Republicans agree with the need for infrastructure fixes, bonding to do it instead of spending from our record-high annual state income does not sit right. Furthermore the bonds are filled with so much pork that you have to sort out the infrastructure from the social-engineering projects inserted by the Democrats. Let’s not forget that GOP legislators by-and-large overwhelmingly opposed placing these bond measures on the ballot – so they are, by definition, a divisive issue on which to campaign.
In order get those volunteer cards signed by earnest, energized Republican workers, the Governor should consider some ideas espoused by the Republican Party, such as:
- Taking a harder line on the State Budget. It won’t take much belt-tightening to make the Democrats scream, and bolster the Governor’s position on being a fiscal conservative.
- Announce some solid initiatives to try to "disincentivize" criminal aliens from residing in California — employer sanctions, requiring proper ID for state services, and a pledge to never sign a bill to allow illegal aliens to have a license to drive. Furthermore, he should call for legislation to impound the car of anyone driving who is not a documented, legal resident. A strategic retreat from support of a "guest worker" (read: AMNESTY) program would be helpful. (These items are important because they counter the exact issues about which GOPers are concerned — the "DC doldrums".)
- Propose tax CUTS – or one-time tax refunds. It should be California families, not state government, that enjoys the fruits of a healthy economy.
- Endorse both the parental notification and the Protect Our Homes property rights measures on the November ballot.
- Prepare a statewide "veto tour" of California, rejecting the flurry of liberal legislation that will land on his desk in the coming months, courtesy of the left-wing legislature.
It would be a mistake to assume that merely contrasting an ultra-liberal Phil Angelides with a centrist Schwarzenegger is going to motivate core GOP activists. Volunteers are best motivated not by being ‘against’ something — but by being ‘FOR’ something. No one is expecting Arnold Schwarzenegger to be a right-winger — but the ideas I mention above are just a few main-stream things he can do to help the great team that is being assembled to be best able to do their job. I know many of the folks on the Victory ’06 ("V6) team and they are very capable. But it will take some campaigning by the Governor on positive, GOP-friendly issues to enable them to be successful and to really turn out the vote.
Even with all of that, the whole California ticket had best hope that the GOP in Washington comes up with some achievements on spending control, does not pass some sort of amnesty/guest worker program, and perhaps even comes up with a definable exit-strategy for the engagement in Iraq (I get a lot of e-mail from Republicans on this). If not, there will still be a volunteer program. Some volunteers will still ‘step up’ just to fight off the specter of Angelides being Governor. But the numbers of enthusiastic volunteers will be a lot less than their potential if the Governor doesn’t adjust his campaign rhetoric to appeal to the Republican base. The Governor can’t control what happens in D.C., but he can create an energetic campaign that quells, not feeds, the concerns of grassroots Republicans.
Just ask the folks doing GOP turnout in the 50th Special Election, where it ended up mainly being a GOTV effort by paid staffers ‘dispatched’ to the area. Republicans are unhappy right now with their elected representatives. It will take an serious effort to get them volunteering, an effort that starts with the President and Congress in Washington, D.C., and the Governor here in the Golden State. It wasn’t just Democrats but also Republicans that had a record low turnout last Tuesday.
Here is the article from the Associated Press:
GOP fashioning Bush-style turnout operation for Cal election
Michael R. Blood, AP Political Writer
Saturday, June 10, 2006
State Republicans are attempting to organize the largest mobilization of GOP election volunteers in state history to help deliver a re-election victory for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a strategy modeled on get-out-the-vote drives that President Bush used to capture Ohio and other swing states in 2004.
Party insiders say as many as 90,000 people could be enlisted in the closing days of the race to knock on doors, plant yard signs or make telephone calls to connect with potential voters, an unprecedented figure in a state thick with Democrats.
A record turnout by the state’s 5.4 million Republicans could cut into a Democratic registration edge that otherwise puts Schwarzenegger and other statewide GOP candidates at a numerical disadvantage at the polls.
"The California Republican Party will build the largest Republican voter turnout organization ever built in any state in the history of the nation this year," said Ron Nehring, vice chair of the state GOP.
The point on election day: "The world is run by who shows up," Nehring said.
The turnout operation — which will be bankrolled with as much as $25 million — is being assembled at a state party office in Burbank by William Christiansen, a veteran state GOP operative whose get-out-the-vote program for the 2004 Bush campaign in Arizona helped deliver a 10-point victory. Former Bush strategists also are in charge of Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign, which is playing a central role in the turnout drive.
With Christiansen, "We have someone who knows the system. … He knows how to make it work," said Contra Costa County Republican Party Chairman Thomas Del Beccaro.
At a time when many people are disenchanted with politics — Tuesday’s primary appears to be one of the lowest turnouts on record in California — identifying potential voters and nudging them to go to the polls or fill out a mail-in ballot will be critical for both major parties.
There are 6.7 million registered Democrats in California compared to 5.4 million Republicans, but Republicans generally turn out 5 percent more voters, helping close the gap. Luring the increasingly large number of independent voters — nearly 20 percent of the state electorate, or 2.9 million — will be another key factor in November.
Analysts say typical methods for motivating potential voters — phone calls, bulk mailings and even television ads — might not be as effective as once believed. Following the Bush model, the thinking is they must be contacted and cajoled repeatedly, in person, neighbor to neighbor, to make sure a vote is cast.
That’s the heart of the GOP plan, party leaders say.
The turnout brain trust also includes Terry Nelson, the political director for Bush’s re-election campaign in 2004; state Republican Chairman Duf Sundheim; GOP strategist Joe Shumate; pollster Sarah Simmons; and Schwarzenegger political director Stephanie Tyler-Jackson. More than 60 people have been hired and deployed around the state.
But there are possible problems. Schwarzenegger will try to energize his base at a time when Bush’s popularity is slumping and the GOP is divided by a host of social and economic issues, from gay marriage to immigration to the state’s continuing budget deficits.
Read the entire AP article here.
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