Phil Angelides might want to think about taking a family vacation to shore up votes on the home-team, as he starts to plummet so low in public opinion polls that he might not even get a majority vote at a family reunion. Who would have thought that in a state with a plurality of Democrat voters that a nominee of the party of Barbara Boxer would be suffering a double-digit deficit to a Republican Governor? Well, it isn’t rocket science. Phil Angelides is his own worst enemy. We are talking about someone who has embraced just about every form of higher taxes possible, and who has views on everything from the environment to illegal immigration that put him so far out to the left that he makes Arnold’s Uncle, Ted Kennedy, look moderate.
But as much as we would all like to give Phil Angelides full credit for his deficit in public polling, we can only give him credit for being an ultra-left wing radical who has all of the charisma of a Certified Public Accountant (sorry if I have offended any of my CPA friends). Much of the credit for the Governor’s now 13 point lead (there are lots of polls, with varying leads, but that’s the latest public poll number) goes to the Governor himself. First and foremost, the Governor and his campaign have shown a lot of discipline going into this year’s Gubernatorial race… As a matter of fact, if this kind of message and operational discipline had been in place last year, I am convinced that all of the Governor’s special election measures would have passed! Credit goes to the Governor for tapping Steve Schmidt and giving Schmidt the latitude to structure the campaign side of the operations, and for hiding his Democrat Chief of Staff, Susan Kennedy, far away from the media spotlight. The Governor has also been very strong in his opposition to ANY new taxes or fees, presenting the strongest possible contrast to Angelides on the issue which, frankly, makes Angelides the weakest candidate possible.
Obviously some triangulation is also at play as the Governor and his campaign emphasize issues in the media and in advertising that will separate Angelides from many voters who have in the past traditionally voted for a Democrat. This strategy, which we’ll call "Democrat Lite," seems to be working very well. The contrast on the tax issue is enough to lock down virtually all Republican voters, while his appeal to moderate and liberal Californians with his left-of-center positions on a myriad of issues (environment, regulating medical prescription prices, borrowing-for-infrastructure, etc.) has really eaten into Angelides core constituency. It also helps that Angelides’ extreme left-wing views on virtually every issue allow the Governor to move to the center (and in some cases beyond) and still run a ‘contrast campaign’ against his opponent.
Take for example the immigration issue. Conservative Republicans by and large oppose any amnesty programs (which is what the FlashReport calls any programs that allow illegal immigrants to stay in this country and become documented legal residents). The Governor has embraced the Bush/U.S. Senate Amnesty Program (note to Schwarzenegger staff: I don’t need twenty calls/e-mails telling me the Governor opposes ‘amnesty’ — my definition sticks and I say Bush AND Arnold support what I call amnesty). Still, again, look at the contrast. Phil Angelides is so far to the liberal extreme that he supports drivers licenses for illegal foreign nationals and would pull our guard troops off of the border. If somebody told me that Angelides wanted to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow illegal foreign nationals to run for President, I would believe them!
As I have said here many times, I wish Governor Schwarzenegger were running a more conservative campaign, and positioning himself more to the right on many major policy issues. That said, I have endorsed him, am voting for him, and am encouraging everyone I know to do the same. On a lot of major issues, he is right on target. And while on some key issues I am frustrated with his positions, I guess I just have to find a 10-step program to deal with it. Actually, I guess I have my own therapy tool — because I will continue to make it known when the Governor (or anyone else) propose or enact policies for California that I think limit the freedom and liberty of our citizens.
In closing, I do want to make an offer to Phil Angelides. I am willing to sit down with you (maybe Maviglio, Acosta and Salazar, too) and we can devise a special campaign designed to help you to win a majority vote at that Angelides’ family reunion. It will be tough, because being your family, they actually know you as the guy at Thanksgiving who talks about how to tax the turkey, and how you lecture everyone about the connection between stuffing and greenhouse gasses. I’ll propose this theme, "If we elect Phil Governor, maybe he’ll be too busy to come to family reunions."
On second thought, I’m not sure we can win over your family.
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