Phil Angelides might want to think about taking a family vacation to shore up votes on the home-team, as he starts to plummet so low in public opinion polls that he might not even get a majority vote at a family reunion. Who would have thought that in a state with a plurality of Democrat voters that a nominee of the party of Barbara Boxer would be suffering a double-digit deficit to a Republican Governor? Well, it isn’t rocket science. Phil Angelides is his own worst enemy. We are talking about someone who has embraced just about every form of higher taxes possible, and who has views on everything from the environment to illegal immigration that put him so far out to the left that he makes Arnold’s Uncle, Ted Kennedy, look moderate.
But as much as we would all like to give Phil Angelides full credit for his deficit in public polling, we can only give him credit for being an ultra-left wing radical who has all of the charisma of a Certified Public Accountant (sorry if I have offended any of my CPA friends). Much of the credit for the Governor’s now 13 point lead (there are lots of polls, with varying leads, but that’s the latest public poll number) goes to the Governor himself. First and foremost, the Governor and his campaign have shown a lot of discipline going into this year’s Gubernatorial race… As a matter of fact, if this kind of message and operational discipline had been in place last year, I am convinced that all of the Governor’s special election measures would have passed! Credit goes to the Governor for tapping Steve Schmidt and giving Schmidt the latitude to structure the campaign side of the operations, and for hiding his Democrat Chief of Staff, Susan Kennedy, far away from the media spotlight. The Governor has also been very strong in his opposition to ANY new taxes or fees, presenting the strongest possible contrast to Angelides on the issue which, frankly, makes Angelides the weakest candidate possible.
Obviously some triangulation is also at play as the Governor and his campaign emphasize issues in the media and in advertising that will separate Angelides from many voters who have in the past traditionally voted for a Democrat. This strategy, which we’ll call "Democrat Lite," seems to be working very well. The contrast on the tax issue is enough to lock down virtually all Republican voters, while his appeal to moderate and liberal Californians with his left-of-center positions on a myriad of issues (environment, regulating medical prescription prices, borrowing-for-infrastructure, etc.) has really eaten into Angelides core constituency. It also helps that Angelides’ extreme left-wing views on virtually every issue allow the Governor to move to the center (and in some cases beyond) and still run a ‘contrast campaign’ against his opponent.
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July 28th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I hope that Arnold keeps in mind that this result is not because his base likes his newfound softness on illegal immigration!