For 11 years I never missed a CRP Convention, but when I termed out as the Treasurer of the Party in 2001 I began attending only sporadically. I came down to LA this weekend to fulfill my duties as a member of the Executive and Rules Committees and to see my good friend, and your humble publisher, Jon Fleischman. I also wanted to attend the Lincoln Clubs Breakfast which just concluded and say hello to good friends there.
In general, not much of substance takes place at these gatherings. They are primarily social affairs, and it is great fun to see old friends and political staffers, consultants, etc. There is the usual inside baseball activity in Initiatives and other committees, but this convention is very light on all the usual machinations. At this convention, all the action is in the initiatives committee, where the Governor’s bond issues will be debated.
The Friday Executive Committee luncheon was keynoted by former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, and while is speech was peppered with the usual, albeit long ago forgotten, Reaganesque principles, after about the fourth "we must do this, and we must do that" I came to my senses and realized, sadly, that we control the entire apparatus in Washington and aren’t’ getting anything done. There are no members of Congress here this weekend and if there were, rotten tomatoes might be flying in their direction. This is almost uniform anger and disappointment with our federal legislators, unlike anything I have ever observed at a Party gathering. It’s bad, it effects the GOP base voter and will adversely effect the Governor’s re-election efforts.
During the same luncheon we saw a well presented summary of the Governor’s re-election strategy. It is very clear that the Governor’s team knows exactly what it must do to win, from the standpoint of turnout, volunteers, micro targeting messaging and other nuances of running a campaign. Frankly, they have the team to get this done, and have done very well since the primary to define Phil Angelides and putting him on the defensive while maintaining a nice lead throughout the summer.
What is lacking, in all of this, is 1-2 issues to motivate the base Republican voter. Fear of an Angelides governorship is not enough. My concern is that, while the Governor’s campaign team might be tactically more proficient than any team in recent memory – what is going to bring a Republican out to vote? What issue? What will create the energy? The same polls showing Arnold in the lead DO NOT measure turnout intensity. Finding an issue needs to be a top priority of this re-election campaign.
There is cautious optimism here at the convention. There is healthy skepticism about voter turnout. The Governor needs to listen and light a fire under his base. What will the issue be?