The Hoover Institute released a new poll yesterday on several state ballot issues (Prop. 85-90 only) and the major candidates the voters will consider in Tuesday’s election.
Here are excerpts from the
"According to a survey conducted October 19-27 for the Hoover Institution by Polimetrix, Schwarzenegger leads his Democratic opponent, California State Treasurer Phil Angelides 50% to 40% with 10% undecided or supporting third party candidates.
"In most other races, Democratic candidates hold comfortable margins over their Republican opponents. U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein leads Republican State Senator Richard Mountjoy 57% to 39% in her bid for reelection. Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi leads State Senator Tom McClintock 51% to 45% in the race for Lieutenant Governor. Current Attorney General Bill Lockyer is headed for an easy victory in the contest for State Treasurer as is Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown who is running for Attorney General. Both hold double-digit leads over their Republican opponents."
"The only Republican other than Schwarzenegger likely to win a statewide contest is Steve Poizner. Poizner leads Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante 55% to 36% in the race for Insurance Commissioner."
"Only one or two propositions on the 2006 ballot appear likely to pass. Proposition 90 (eminent domain restrictions) is well ahead, favored by 58% and opposed by 28%. Propositions 87 (oil company tax) narrowly leads 49% to 44%, while support and opposition for Proposition 86 (cigarette tax) are about the same. Propositions 85 (parental notification of abortions), 88 (education parcel tax), and 89 (public financing for campaigns) are all trailing by large margins."
November 1st, 2006 at 12:00 am
On the other hand, the poll results seemed skewed to Democrats on
other races, notably giving Garamendi, Bowen and Chaing substantial leads.
Hoover showed Arnold only + 10, while Mervyn Field today has him + 16,
which is more in line with other surveys.
Strickland and McClintock have every chance to win. That will mean a
lot for the future of the party if they do.
November 1st, 2006 at 12:00 am
The real race is the Attorney Generals office… because if the dems win it, Nutter Brown will be the front door lynch pin for their agenda, and enforcer of more liberal agendas such as SB1441 or if 1431 had passed… it’s things like this that make him dangerous.
So it is highly important to know what is going on with matters such as eligibility issues for Brown.
http://www.centerswitch.townhall.com
November 1st, 2006 at 12:00 am
I tend to be skeptical of Internet panels, since there’s a large element of self-selection involved, and I’m not convinced that the companies sponsoring them have perfected their “secret sauce” for properly weighing the responses to get an accurate result. Nonetheless, the people behind Polimetrix have impressive credentials, so I went back and looked at their results for the 2005 special election.
Here are the results of the Polimetrix 10/21 – 10/28/2005 survey of its panel of 924 likely voters compared to the actual results:
Prop 73 (parental notification):
Polimetrix: 43% Y, 53% N, 5% U
Actual: 47.2% Y, 52.8% N
Prop 74 (teacher tenure):
Polimetrix: 42% Y, 53% N, 5% U
Actual: 44.8% Y, 55.2% N
Prop 75 (union dues/contributions):
Polimetrix: 50% Y, 45% N, 5% U
Actual: 46.5% Y, 53.5% N
Prop 76 (spending limits):
Polimetrix: 36% Y, 59% N, 5% U
Actual: 37.6% Y, 62.4% N
Prop 77 (redistricting):
Polimetrix: 42% Y, 46% N, 12% U
Actual: 40.2% Y, 59.8% N
Prop 78 (drug discounts):
Polimetrix: 39% Y, 45% N, 16% U
Actual: 41.5% Y, 58.5% N
Prop 79 (prescription drugs):
Polimetrix: 43% Y, 40% N, 17% U
Actual: 39.3% Y, 60.7% N
As you can see, Polimetrix came satisfactorily close on the “Yes” side, but in many cases was way off on the “No” side. Apparently most of their “Undecideds” ended up voting “No”. Alternatively, the “No” campaigns for many of the measures were very effective in convincing the voters during the last week or two of the election. Whatever the explanation, Polimetrix almost uniformly underestimated the final “No” vote for all the propositions, often by huge margins.
We don’t know from this historical example whether Polimetrix is any good at predicting races between candidates rather than ballot measures. What we do know is that the results for the propositions on this November’s ballot are likely to be more negative (perhaps much more negative) than predicted by this latest Hoover/Polimetrix survey.
I consider that excellent news, with the obvious exception that I very much want Prop 90 to win. But given the huge 30-point lead that Polimetrix is giving it, I’m hopeful that it will hang on for at least a narrow victory.
November 1st, 2006 at 12:00 am
I totally agree… poll are cnothing more than consensus, and consensus isn’t after truth, just the objective of its presentation. I tend ot not even bother with polls unless it is Barna or or certain Gallup studies, others tend to be as you say “secret sauced” these polls are really skewed particularly in SoCal locations because there are so many lifestyle oriented places… from Venice Beach to Laguna to colorize your result before you pose the poll question.
http://www.centerswitch.townhall.com