I spoke with a prominent California pollster yesterday who called to inquire about whether or not Decline-To-State voters would be able to vote in the Republican primary for President, should they choose to do so.
The question is not as silly as you might think. Several years back, after the United States Supreme Court tossed out California’s open primary law as being unconstitutional, a state law was passed that allows any political party to "opt in" to allowing Decline-To-State voters to participate in their primaries.
The California Republican Party made a decision to allow DTS voters to particulate in GOP primaries for federal and state legislative, as well as for statewide constitutional office, which has been taking place for multiple election cycles now.
But the Party Bylaws relative to the Presidential primary is abundantly clear. Delegates are awarded based on a tabulation of ONLY the Republican votes.
Of course, the CRP could always change its rules, but to do so at its next convention might very well place the CRP in violation of the Republican National Committee deadline for submitting its rules on selecting delegates to the RNC by July 1, 2007. The cost for such a violation is steep, and would cost the Golden State many, many delegate votes.
That said, I just cannot imagine a scenario where the CRP delegates would vote to allow non-GOPers into the Republican Presidential primary. If anything, it is more probable that the GOP will take a serious look about it’s standing decision to allow DTS voters to cast a ballot in Republican primaries for the other offices.
So, to the pollster who called me, and to the political advisors to various GOP Presidential contenders, only registered Republican voters will be able to cast a ballot for the GOP candidates for President next year in the primary, whether it be in June, or moved up to February.
Of course, as FR readers already know, based on a change in the CRP rules back in 1999, the Presidential delegates to the Republican National Convention from California will be doled out on a Winner-Take-All-By-Congressional-District system. There are three delegates awarded in each of California’s 53 House seats — the campaigns will all submit their lists of delegates — and the candidate who gets the most vote in each will be awarded the delegates. There are a small number of statewide at-large delegates spots that will be given out to the statewide winner, but it is a small number because the RNC formula for awarding statewide ‘bonus’ delegates are set by GOP performance (did the state go GOP for President, each U.S. Senate seat, etc.).
Already the various Presidential campaigns are working on strategies on how to start to approach the California primary as a mix of statewide campaigning and media buys, versus the new importance of local media efforts, and all important grassroots campaigning.
This whole new process may fundamentally alter how delegates have traditionally been selected for California. Usually with the late primary in June, the nominee is selected before we even have a vote — and all of the GOP big wheel donors and influential types all are appointed by the presumptive nominee to be delegates. Now, I would imagine that a larger percentage of delegate positions will be given out to the activists who are heading up the local district strategy for winning a House seat’s voters…
And, of course, there is the question of who runs the administrative functions of a delegation that is split between multiple nominees? I suspect that if there is a presumptive nominee shortly after the California primary, no matter how many of California’s GOP delegates they won, that nominee’s California team would run the show…
Care to read comments, or make your own about today’s Daily Commentary?
Just click here to go to the FR Weblog, where this Commentary has its own blog post, and where you can read and make comments.