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Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: SD 19 Update: With Mike Stoker’s endorsement, Tony Strickland is sitting pretty to succeed Tom McClintock

Next year, conservative icon Tom McClintock will reach the limit of his allowable service in the State Senate under the term limits approved by California voters in 1990.  McClintock’s 19th State Senate District, which is centered in Ventura County, stretches from Santa Barbara down to Los Angeles County (and even includes the Channel Islands), is favorable to a Republican candidate.
 
As just about every FR reader knows, former Assemblyman Tony Strickland (pictured to the left), fresh off of the statewide campaign trail in 2006 where he failed in his bid to become California’s next Controller, is now running an aggressive campaign to succeed McClintock.  The Assembly District that Tony represented for six years is fully within the Senate seat, and is currently (and conveniently) occupied by his wife, Audra, who is in the middle of her second two-year term in the State Assembly.
 
Earlier this year Strickland kicked off his State Senate run with a high profile fundraising even that raised him $140,000.  Known as fundraising ‘machine’ for his determination, Strickland has continued to raise funds, most recently with an event last week in Downtown Los Angeles with special guest California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.
 
The main reason for this SD 19 update for FR readers was the significant announcement yesterday by former Santa Barbara County Supervisor and McClintock staffer Mike Stoker that he would not be running in the GOP primary against Strickland (h/t to our former Managing Editor, Nicholas Romero, for the heads up).  While Strickland’s organization and name ID are strong, Stoker would have been a formidable opponent, and likely would have neutralized a coveted McClintock endorsement, which one can assume will be borne soley by Strickland at this point.  I have attached the e-mail announcement that Stoker sent out.  In his note, Stoker not only announces that he is not running, but also gives his endorsement to Strickland.

"With Tony, I strongly believe you will see continuity in a way that the level of representation we get from Senator McClintock will not be sacrificed in anyway. Tony is an energetic and committed public servant."

We caught up with Strickland who was clearly pleased with Stoker’s support of his candidacy.  He told us, "I am very pleased to have the support of Mike Stoker, he will be a great asset to me and my campaign to become State Senator."
 
It is probable that in the General Election, Strickland would go up against liberal Democrat Assemblyman Pedro Nava, who would face an uphill battle in this seat that was gerrymandered to elect Republicans.
 
On a final note, the local Congressman in area is Republican Elton Gallegly.  Last year, Gallegly grabbed headlines for a few days as he attempted to orchestrate a failed maneuver to retire from the House and "hand off" his safe GOP seat to a friend.  When that got botched, the Congressman ran for and was elected to another term.  At the time, he said that he would definately seek re-election in 2008 as well.  Now he is equivocating on that, telling Congressional Quarterly via his press aide that he has, "not yet made a decision about whether he will run:

It is not clear that his strong showing has prompted a change of heart for Gallegly, but it appears he is going to take his time in making up his mind about the 2008 race. In an e-mail to CQPolitics.com last week, Gallegly spokesman Thomas Pfeifer confirmed that the congressman has not yet made a decision about whether he will run, adding that he expects the incumbent to make an announcement “at the end of this year or early next year” regarding his future. 

If Gallegly retires, we’ll have to see how that would change Strickland’s planned candidacy for the Senate.  In the meantime, it would appear that Strickland is the clear favorite to follow McClintock into the State Senate.