I’ve been engaged in politics, either as a volunteer or professionally, for over two decades now. During that period of time, I have seen Tom Campbell successful run for state and federal legislative offices with success. The area in which he lived, south of San Francisco near San Jose, during the 90’s was home to a lot of GOP officeholders who tended to gravitate more conservative fiscally and more liberal socially. Time having gone by, no that turf isn’t even friendly to moderate Republicans anymore.
Tom Campbell has made runs for statewide office three times now (if you include the current quest for the GOP nomination for Governor). In 1992 he narrowly lost (by less than 3%) the Republican primary for U.S. Senate to conservative icon Bruce Herschensohn (who went on to then Congresswoman Barbara Boxer). In 2000, a cycle with which I am very familiar as I was Executive Director of the California Republican Party at the time, Campbell won the primary (besting then State Senator Ray Haynes and San Diego Supervisor Bill Horn) but got whalloped in the general against Senator Feinstein by nearly 20 points.
By my recollection, Campbell’s better effort was in 1992 — and I think it would be fair to say that he did not have "wind in his sails" in his 2000 run, and was significantly outspend by his opponent.
This last year Campbell has been on the campaign trail, once again seeking a statewide office in California. During that period of time, Campbell has been traveling the Golden State, and raising what he was is around a million bucks. I guess that would be a lot of money if one was running for Governor of say, New Hampshire or Rhode Island. Unfortunately, in a state like California, you had to raise a heck of a lot more than that. Especially if, as is the case with Campbell, he is so moderate that he not going to be able to count on a massive statewide volunteer base (Generally, if you don’t stand firmly on issues, but seek the middle ground, it’s hard to attract committed volunteers).
Of course Campbell has been in this primary with kagillionaires Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman, and their large pocketbooks (plus both have raised considerably more than Campbell, it Whitman’s case as much as ten times over) only serve to emphasize his fundraising challenge. It’s been really hard to understand why he continues to run, when the odds of his winning the GOP nomination (let along a general election) seem longer than mine would be running for Olympic gold (in anything).
Some have told me that they think that for Campbell it is more of an intellectual pursuit, and a hobby — that Campbell loves policy issues, and particularly enjoys speaking to an audience, and participating in the occasional debate. This is not hard to imagine if you spend time with Campbell. Don’t get me wrong, Campbell has a lot of gravitas in terms of understanding policy issues — he’s a smart guy. But I’m not at all convinced that he can win statewide office. Apparently, if rumors are true that he is going to depart the Governor’s race this Thursday, he doesn’t put much stock in his own ability to win that primary. Though I’m sure at the press conference, with a wry smile, he’ll comment about letting Poizner and Whitman off easy…
Campbell, who is being quite tight lipped about his precise post-Gubernatorial campaign plans, is rumored to be switching over from a run for Governor to instead go into the U.S. Senate primary. The San Jose Mercury News actually reports having this confirmed from a source.
Why run for U.S. Senate? Is it because it will allow "Professor Campbell" to spend the next five and a half months discussing and debating federal issues instead of state issues? Maybe he has been dreaming for the better part of two decades for the opportunity to actually go up against Barbara Boxer in a general election? Or maybe, just maybe he thinks he can win the whole Enchilada.
When I look at the existing GOP primary for U.S. Senate, I see former HP CEO Carly Fiorina as more the "establishment" candidate — and when I say that for the purposes of this analysis, she will have the support of the state’s GOP major donor establishment, who will be attracted to her personal wealth and celebrity as a former head of a Fortune 500 company. Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, a conservative leader with decades of grassroots experience and involvement, has tied down the activist community for sure, and the lion’s share of endorsements from his colleagues in the State Capitol.
So you wonder where the "niche" is that Campbell would occupy in this primary? I assume it would be those Republican primary votes whose own calculation leads them to the conclusion that the more moderate the opponent to Boxer, the better.
As for resources, whatever Campbell actually has in his Gubernatorial campaign account ("around a million" minus all of the expenses of raising that money and whatever his campaign has spent since its inception) cannot be transferred, under the stupid federal finance laws, into a U.S. Senate campaign account. So while he can refund donors and ask them to re-give for this other race, that is a labor-intensive process and may not bear much fruit if his Gubernatorial supporters are already supporting someone else for the U.S. Senate.
Perhaps he is not so much concerned about a niche, if his goal is merely to shift the content of his rhetoric and debate from state to federal issues. The reality is that if he gets into the primary, he sits out to the left of Fiorina and DeVore, with the donor community already tied down, and activists likely not interested in his moderate views or tone.
At least one major donor told me that Campbell has been encouraged to announce that he is starting a campaign for U.S. Senate in 2012, when Dianne Feinstein is up for re-election but is seen as likely to retire (she’s not getting any younger). No doubt this strategy would have Campbell will hope for a big win for the open primary this cycle, improving the odds that a moderate GOPer can go on to a November showndown. The Mercury News story seems to minimize the likelyhood of this scenario.
Anyways, the mystery and intrigue that Campbell is trying to build towards his Thursday press event does remind me of another politician here in California. Can you guess who? Yep, Arnold Schwarzenegger relishes the ability to surprise people. Perhaps Campbell, currently residing with his wife in Irvine in Orange County, is going to campaign to get elected Mayor of his hometown, taking on a Democrat incumbent?
I guess we’ll keep an eye on what he says and let you know. In the meantime, Campbell is running the risk of becoming the perennial candidate – the Eugene McCarthy of our time (McCarthy ran unsuccessfully for the Presidency five times).
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