Since December 21, The Real Clear Politics average of all recent polls of Iowa Caucus goers shows a very tight race between Mitt Romney (22.8%) and Ron Paul (21.5%) with Rick Santorum (16.3%) trending up into third place.  What to draw from this?

Over this period, Romney and Paul have been fairly consistent in their tracking with Romney’s high-to-low at 19-25 and Paul’s at 20-22 (other than one 19, he reads 22-25).  While Newt Gingrich (13.7%) shows an uptick from the freefall of last week (12-16), Rick Santorum (16.3%) is steadily trending up from 15-18.

Romney, Santorum, and Paul all draw from different ideologies and geographies in the state.  Romney, the establishment favorite, who has been portrayed as a moderate, will need to draw heavily from moderate east Iowa.  Santorum, who is an evangelical, is being propelled by the social conservatives that dominate the northwest of the state.  And Paul depends on more libertarian non-establishment conservatives and young activists and will benefit from a strong turnout from college towns like Ames.

In 2008, the RCP average going into the Primary was Huckabee 34.4%, Romney 25.2%, McCain 13%, and Paul and Thompson tied with 13.4%.  The results were not far off: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, McCain 13%, and Paul 9.9%.  If that holds true in 2012, Romney wins Iowa and then probably builds an inevitable wave that propels him to the GOP nomination.

Post-Iowa, New Hampshire takes place just one week later and Romney holds a commanding 41-19% lead over next-best Ron Paul.  Gingrich currently holds a 37-21% lead in South Carolina but can he hold that with a 4^th place showing in Iowa and probably doing no better in New Hampshire?  Gingrich leads Romney 35-28% in Florida but the same holds true as South Carolina.

Arguably, Santorum and Paul could be X-factors but that depends almost entirely on strong Iowa showings to build momentum in the next states.  Santorum currently pulls 4% in New Hampshire, 2.7% in South Carolina, and 1.5% in Florida.  Paul pulls 18.8% in New Hampshire, 8.7% in South Carolina, and 6.5% in Florida.  Both candidates must exceed expectations to last beyond Florida.  Santorum must consolidate the Gingrich-Perry-Bachman supporters as the conservative choice for a Romney alternative and Paul must come in 2^nd in New Hampshire.

In reality, the race could be decided a week from now but likely be all but done after the February 4 Nevada contests (Romney currently leads Gingrich 33-29%).  In that scenario, it seems as though Romney will win every contest to lock it up.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012 at 9:35 am and is filed under Blog Posts.