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Barry Jantz

The Winners! – The Great Rostra/FlashReport San Diego Primary Election Contest

The results have been tallied for our little Election Contest (see the questions here), with about 45 participants.  I’m pleased to say it was the most competitive contest yet.  Maybe the questions were too easy.  I’ll remember that next time.  But, we do have some winners.

First, some stats — since the type of ner … uhhh, I mean wonks who enter the contest are into stats.

Out of the 10 base questions, no one got less than five correct answers, with 63 percent of the participants getting between five and seven right. About another one-third nailed eight or nine correctly, pretty amazing.

More specifically:

San Diego City Council District 5 — Thankfully, this “gimme” question that the seat would be won by lone contender and Republican Mark Kersey was answered correctly by everyone, including Kersey.  He did add an “ahem” after his answer to this one.

San Diego City Council District 1 — One third of you guessed this race would not be over in the primary, correctly believing that Republican Ray Ellis would force a run-off against Democrat incumbent Sherri Lightner.

San Diego City Council District 7 — A whopping 80 percent correctly picked Scott Sherman (R) as the top finisher over Mat Kostrinsky (D).  In retrospect, it would have been interesting to ask if this race would be over in the primary.

San Diego Mayor — Although both names had to be chosen correctly, sixty-seven percent did indeed call the top two vote getters as Rep Carl DeMaio and Dem Bob Filner.  There was not much of a move to the middle on this question, apparently.

Congress, District 52 — More than 75 percent accurately predicted Scott Peters would beat out fellow Dem Lori Saldana for the number two spot, with some even guessing top-finisher Brian Bilbray would be runner-up.  Maybe they didn’t read the question correctly, not my problem.

State Assembly, District 76 — A bit tougher, since the names of the top two were required, but one-third of you got both Rocky Chavez and Sherry Hodges, the two Republicans that will matchoff in November.

State Assembly, District 79 — This was a difficult one as well, having to pick the top finisher among the Democrats.  Again, thirty-three percent correctly called it for Shirley Weber.

Some High Marks — A full 83 percent or so were right that Prop B in the City of San Diego would do better than Prop A, another 83 percent said correctly that Assemblyman Marty Block (D) would finish tops in the 39th State Senate race, and — wait for it — 95 percent of you picked number one finisher Senator Juan Vargas (D) in Congressional District 51.

Tie-Breaker 1 — This was only if needed, of course, and it was needed, but a pretty amazing 43 percent nailed the exact order of finish in the District 3 County Supervisor’s race, with Republican Steve Danon being followed by Democrat Dave Roberts and Republican Carl Hilliard behind that.

Tie-Breaker 2 — The second “run-off” question was to guess the difference in percentage between DeMaio and Independent Nathan Fletcher, regardless of their order of finish. The spread between the two is now at 7.34 percent (and is unlikely to change with only a handful of votes to count).  Wowzza — 27 percent of the entrants guessed seven or eight points, with 55 percent picking between five and nine points.  I didn’t know that many folks had access to John Nienstedt‘s polling numbers.


Those getting eight of the 10 questions right and thus deserving of  honorable mention are (in no particular order) Jon CrossTom Mitchell,Michael HadlandTab BergDoug SainVince VasquezPaul Webster,Chris Crotty, and Scott Lewis.  Of those, Mitchell, Hadland, Berg, Vasquez, Crotty and Lewis all picked the first tie-breaker correctly! Among those, Tab Berg was the closest on tie-breaker two, guessing seven percent on the DeMaio-Fletcher spread.  Tom Mitchell guessed a very respectable 6.5 percent.

Nine out of 10 questions correct — FIVE of you, Michael McSweeneyChris CateJordan MarksDebra O’Toole, and Brad Barnum are 90 percenters.  But only one got the order right in the Danon-Roberts-Hilliard battle, so scores a “show” in this contest on a tie-breaker — Jordan Marks!

All ten questions right — I didn’t think I’d ever see this, but both Christine Moore and Matt Awbrey locked down 10 for 10 correctly.  Then sealing her victory by also accurately picking the first tie-breaker was Moore.

I should note that Awbrey did guess seven percent on tie-breaker two, the percentage between DeMaio and Fletcher.  If you count the tie-breakers as part of the overall, then, Moore got 11 of 12 questions dead on, with Awbrey 10 of 12 and the 11th as close as anyone’s guess in the whole contest.  You’d do well to invite these two to the track.

By the way, the only way it is ever known how a participant guesses on specific questions is for them to get ‘em all right, so there you go. They’ll have to live with it.

Once again, the winners:

First Place (and an Albondigas lunch on me) — Christine Moore

Second Place — Matt Awbrey

Third Place — Jordan Marks

Congratulations all!  See you next time.