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Ron Nehring

Despite Poor Economy, Presidential Contest Tied as GOP Convention Begins

The latest economic confidence figures show an American public with a negative view of the economy that remains stable.  Unless there is a sudden and unexpected stream of good economic news over the next 60 days, the economy will continue to be a major drag on President Obama’s re-election prospects.

Gallup reported the latest data on August 21.

While no President in modern times has been re-elected with an unemployment rate over 7.2%, the race remains extremely tight despite the low marks Americans give to the economy.  The Gallup five day rolling average culminating the day before the onset of the Republican National Convention shows Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 46%.

Historically, conventions tend to produce a 5-point bounce for their Presidential nominee.  The Democratic convention will take place just a few days after the GOP meets, meaning any bounce is likely to be short lived.

We should have a clear idea of the post-convention dynamic around Monday, September 10.