Bilbray Heartens the GOP – WSJ’s Political Diary

Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief. With some 40,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted, moderate former GOP Congressman Brian Bilbray won a much-watched special election in San Diego yesterday. Mr. Bilbray won 50% of the vote to Democrat Francine Busby’s 45%. Should those numbers hold through the absentee count, it will mean that Ms. Busby won only the base Democratic vote in the district — John Kerry won 44% there in 2004.

What makes the Bilbray victory noteworthy is that he was a weak candidate, having won a divided GOP primary with only 15% of the vote and losing 5% of yesterday’s vote to right-wing third party candidates. Even the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, which spent an unheard-of $4.5 million on his behalf, noted this morning that Republicans… Read More

Since we don’t have a central coast blogger right now, I’m going to pick up the slack and report on Ventura County’s hotly contested Supervisorial race. The district includes the cities of Simi Valley and Moorepark. Republican Judy Mikels was the three term incumbant in this GOP dominant district. Mikels, who challanged Tom McClintock unsuccessfully in 2000 for State Senate, was seen as somewhat vulnerable because of her ties to unpopular local development projects and an ongoing rumor that she actually lived out of state. Populist Democrat Jim Dantona declared against her nearly a year ago and was rrunning a well funded aggresive campaign but the general feeling among many insiders was that party registration alone would probably save Mikels. Enter conservative Republican Peter Foy, who literally decided to run and filed on the deadline. Local media reported Foy as a ‘spoiler’ set up to run by local conservatives who disliked Mikels in order to make sure Dantona came in first in the run-off against Mikels. Most of the coverage treated him as a secondary candidate, with the big show being the increasingly bitter and savage Dantona… Read More

I’ve checked the parking lot a few times today at Richvale Elementary and NOBODY is showing up to vote. I’m very concerned that Nor Cal voters are not engaged. Phil and Steve are boring my voters to death! Oh, wait a minute……. er, I forgot, Richvale, Pop. 250,is now entirely a mail-in precinct as its not populated enough. Oh well,SNL’sGilda RadnerwouldhaveEmilyLitella say"Never mind!"… Read More

Deal or No Deal?… I said I would get some flak for blogging the Horn-Thompson Supe Survey a few days ago. John Nienstedt, of the very credible (unlike, perhaps, the anon numbers I posted) Competitive Edge Research & Communication, sends alongthis appropo missive:

Barry, Barry, Barry: Yeah I’ll give you some flak. Last I checkedThompson’s employment designation isn’t "businessman," its "regionalbusiness administrator." Why does that matter? Because no self-respectingpollster (or pollster who deserves respect) would screw that up.

So bear with me now: backing the unsures out of Q3, this poll is sayingthat Thompson should win with 65% of the vote. Now, the margin of samplingerror on that question for a sample size of 377 (taking into account thatwe’re backing out the unsures) is plus or minus 4.8%. That means that, if Thompson gets less than 60% of the… Read More

Today is election day! Have you remembered to vote? I’m going to go vote right after I finish up this commentary.

There is a practice within the main stream media to pretty much stop election coverage in the final couple of days before the election, with some notable exceptions. I think that the idea behind this is that at a certain point, it becomes too late for anyone to contest or disagree with the analysis of a newspaper or a TV station, and that it may just seem a bit unfair to weigh into races in the final days/hours. That said, there are a few stories on the main page worth a read, on individual races. Today we have featured a column from Sacramento Bee ace columnist Dan Weintraub, who pens a piece on what the various ‘hot spots’ are around the state, providing a ‘guide’ to follow election day results. Definitely worth a read. In the "Golden Pen" today is a must-read column from the Wall Street Journal’s Brendan Miniter on the lessons of the Congressional District 50 special election. An excerpt:… Read More

Today is election day! Have you remembered to vote? I’m going to go vote right after I finish up this commentary.

There is a practice within the main stream media to pretty much stop election coverage in the final couple of days before the election, with some notable exceptions. I think that the idea behind this is that at a certain point, it becomes too late for anyone to contest or disagree with the analysis of a newspaper or a TV station, and that it may just seem a bit unfair to weigh into races in the final days/hours. That said, there are a few stories on the main page worth a read, on individual races. Today we have featured a column from Sacramento Bee ace columnist Dan Weintraub, who pens a piece on what the various ‘hot spots’ are around the state, providing a ‘guide’ to follow election day results. Definitely worth a read. In the "Golden Pen" today is a must-read column from the Wall Street Journal’s Brendan Miniter on the lessons of the Congressional District 50 special election. An excerpt:… Read More

RC’s ace reporter on things going on out here in the West penned this piece in today’s Roll Call Newspaper: Parties on Edge in California By David M. Drucker Roll Call Staff The wild special election to replace former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th district comes to a head today, and the outcome will have broad implications in the battle for the House and on the role issues such as illegal immigration and ethics might play in the fall.… Read More

I know everyone can hardly wait to see if Keith Richman or Claude Parrishbecomes the GOPTreasurer nominee.

But in LA County We got other stuff going on.

Judges: Everyone has trouble figuring out judges. Below are Conservative LA County Sup Mike Antonovich’s picks. Other sources are LA GOP DA Steve Cooleyor Robyn Nordell’s great site.

Long Beach: Is picking a Mayor. Look like the Dems will pick this one up. You can read the most recent article on the race here.People have to vote twice!See my last post with links here. Torrance: Will Dan Walker survive? this is a hotly contested race. My takes are here.Vote Rod Guyton for Council.

Sheriff: Lee Baca needs to… Read More