Jim Lacy, aslatemaker,released some polling data today that suggests OC Supervisor Chris Norby is winning the race for AD 72 in the November Special Election. And at first glance you might think the results have some relevance. But take another look:

The poll he contracted for only surveys Republican voters

Special Elections in California are not governed by typical Primary Election rules that exclude cross-party voting. Therefore the Lacy poll is way off baseand has little relevance in the grand scheme of electing someone to replace Duvall. Leaving out Democratic and Decline to State voters and even third-party members who represent a small portion of the electorate, totally and unforgivingly skews the results to meaninglessness.

Moreover, the poll fails to select any turnout model even just among the Republican voters surveyed. So in a low turnout Special Election where (you pick a number 20%, 30%, 19% 34%) will actually cast a ballot, the Lacy poll chooses to survey everyone who happens to be registered to the GOP regardless of their voting history. If you believe the Lacy poll, 90% of Republican voters will turnout in… Read More

For weeks now I have been delving into the new Commission on the 21st Century Economy report on taxes. I have praised its recommendations to reduce and eliminate taxes, and I have encouraged legislators to study the research into the many problems with the current tax structure. Now I need to move on to the worst part of the report: the recommendation to abolish the Board of Equalization. Without hearing from any Board member (including me), they concluded that our appeals process for taxpayers is unfair. While I do not always vote with the majority on the Board, I do know that of all tax appeal systems this is the fairest.

Members of the Board of Equalization are elected by the people. Voters still trust their own vote more than they trust the political appointment process. Judges or hearing officers who are appointed by a Governor or some department head are much more likely to answer to the one who gave them the job than to the people of the state. It is true that the BOE also administers the collection of sales taxes and dozens of other taxes, but our appeals process is independent of our auditors. The department must present its own case to the Board… Read More

Sacramento Bee’s crack reporting staff has posted another break-through investigative piece with the revelation that all three GOP candidates for Governor have had some kind of tie to Democrats over the past half-century.

The Bee features a photo and quote of FR publisher Jon Fleischman – another indication of the increasingly higher profile respected blogs are playing in shaping, as well as commenting on, public opinions. Maybe the Bee was hoping a quote from a well known conservative would make them look like they did their homework this time.

A quick overview of the story is that Campbell was a Democrat 40 years ago, Whitman gave money to Boxer in 2003, and Poizner gave money to the Democrat National Committee, Al Gore and John Kerry.

While the Bee wonders if these stunning (albeit well-known) revelations are making Republican voters question the candidates partisan loyalties; Fleischman hits the more salient issue of the lack of track record from Poizner… Read More

The same unelected enviro-ideologues at the California Air Resources Board that earlier this year were intent on shutting down California’s gas stations have come up with yet another off-the-way crazy idea as they seek to come up with the screwiest schemes to lower carbon emissions in California to comply with the state’s draconian AB 32 guidelines…

It seems like lately California, which I remind readers is in the same recession as the rest of the country (actually worse) has been drawing a lot curious looks at state government churns out dumb ideas from banning big screen televisions to looking at how the state can directly control air conditioning use in new homes. The latest remarkably dumb idea has caught the attention of none-other than America’s most widely listened-to radio talk show host – Rush Limbaugh.

So take a guess as to what he talked about earlier this week, since our state has no shortage of interesting topics to dive into? It wasn’t our budget woes, prison overcrowding or even the proposed new NFL stadium in the City of Industry.

This week, Limbaugh gave… Read More

Chris Norby has a strong lead on Linda Ackerman in a new scientific poll of Republicans in the 72nd Assembly District special election. Norby beats Ackerman among Republicans 27.7% to 17%. Most Republican voters, 51.3%, remain undecided.However, Norby has very good positive/negatives at 38.4/13% (a ratio of 3 to 1 positive);while Ackerman has bad positive/negatives at 19.3/15.7% (a statistical ratio of 1 to 1) with 65% no opinion, never heard of her. In contrast, Norby is known by over a majority of the voters in the district, according to the poll. The poll, which surveyed 300 representative Republican voters in the district this last weekend from October 22 to 25th, was conducted for my company, Landslide Communications, by Salt Lake City-based NSON Opinion Research. NSON is a well-respected consumer, political and marketing research company that has been in business since 1992 and was founded by its President, Ronald T. Nielson. The poll focused only on a representative sampling of Republican voters in the district. Republican party registration is dominant in the 72nd Assembly District, at over… Read More

The same unelected enviro-ideologues at the California Air Resources Board that earlier this year were intent on shutting down California’s gas stations have come up with yet another off-the-way crazy idea as they seek to come up with the screwiest schemes to lower carbon emissions in California to comply with the state’s draconian AB 32 guidelines…

It seems like lately California, which I remind readers is in the same recession as the rest of the country (actually worse) has been drawing a lot curious looks at state government churns out dumb ideas from banning big screen televisions to looking at how the state can directly control air conditioning use in new homes. The latest remarkably dumb idea has caught the attention of none-other than America’s most widely listened-to radio talk show host – Rush Limbaugh.

So take a guess as to what he talked about earlier this week, since our state has no shortage of interesting topics to dive into? It wasn’t our budget woes, prison overcrowding or even the proposed new NFL stadium in the City of Industry.

This week, Limbaugh gave… Read More

Now’s your chance… We JUST started a fan page. We’ll be able to share EVEN MORE info and intel on California politics with our fans on Facebook… FB.init("855b46c73def61de14cbe908e34ec8bc");

According to the Orange County Registrar of Voters, 78,931 voters in the 72nd Assembly District have been mailed absentee ballots. As of close of business, the OCROV had received 4,355 back (see the daily updates here).

Tracking the number of absentee ballots returned is an essential component of properly framing the election strategy in this hyper-condensed special election that will have a relatively tiny turnout. If the past is any indicator (it is), then a strong majority of the votes cast in this election to fill the vacant Assembly Seat will come from absentee voters.

With the likelihood that thousands of votes will be cast each day (certainly in the coming days), there is a scramble for both the Norby and the Ackerman campaigns to really get their messaging out — especially to absentee voters — pronto.

Linda Ackerman has no choice but to hit Chris Norby hard with negative mail. As long long time public official in north Orange County, Norby has had many years to build up his positive name identification. If Ackerman… Read More