This was the famous reminder posted in all of then Governor Bill Clinton’s campaign offices as he ran for President against then incumbent George H.W. Bush. It was there to keep the campaign from being distracted by other issues and to focus on the fact that the economy was bad and people were hurting. It worked.

But the economy is much worse now. And as President Obama fiddles away in the White House with a government take-over of health care, the economy is far from being out of the woods.

Yes, the economy will almost certainly be declared to be technically out of recession in this quarter. Things have stopped getting worse. Monthly job losses have declined. But we should not be sanguine. There are 4 major risks on the horizon which could lead us into a "double dip" or "W-shaped" recession next year. Many economists, including some of President Obama’s advisors, have told me they think that the risk of slipping back into recession next year is at least 50%.

What would cause that to happen? See the following:

1.) First of all, this "recovery" is weak and jobless. There… Read More

There will be more to come about the California Republican Party convention in coming days — as longtime FR readers know, as a blogger who is also an elected officer of the party, it is difficult for me to devote a lot of time the weekend of the convention to writing about it in real time.

That said, while this convention has been a lot of fun, I have to say as a politico that so far the best "entertainment value" of the weekend was enjoyed by the small group of people who occupied the press conference room yesterday afternoon to hear the media availabilities of Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman — both of which were quite stimulating.

Poizner opened his availability with some thoughts on his policy agenda — he was not scheduled to speak until the dinner last night and so he hit some details for the reporters presents. A portion of Poizner’s plan to revitalize California’s economy is a 10% reduction in tax rates to stimulate economic growth. Poizner’s assertion that lowering the rates would actually increase state tax revenues was met with a number of questions from reporters about this assertion — wanting more… Read More

Today I announced my lawsuit against Attorney General Jerry Brown for abusing the power and authority of the AG’s office when Brown wrote an overtly biased “title and summary” for a state ballot initiative that I submitted earlier this year.

The attorney general is required by law to meet a higher standard of fairness and impartiality when he drafts petitions, as well as ballot title and summaries. But instead, Brown cast his duties aside and played into the politics of ACORN and other Left Wing groups who oppose any type of voter reform. In the process, Californians were robbed of any degree of impartiality by Jerry Brown.

Earlier this year, I submitted Vote SAFE, a ballot measure that would improve California’s voting process by requiring voters to present photo identification at the polls; allow county Registrar of Voters additional time to count military votes that are mailed in from outside the U.S.; and protect the identity of absentee voters by concealing the voter’s signature on the envelope.

The Vote SAFE measure takes pains to make sure everyone has an opportunity to vote by allowing voters who don’t possess ID to vote provisionally,… Read More

Yesterday morning my commentary highlighted the back-and-forth between Team Whitman and Team Poizner sparked by the Sacramento Bee’s story on Meg Whitman not voting in elections. As with any back-and-forth, you have to stop at some point and write about it. Shortly after I penned that piece, the Whitman campaign had this comment on Poizner spokesman Jarrod Agen’s last volley (read it here)…

“Our campaign’s release was not only justified, it was an understated response to a wild-eyed, hysterical statement released by a Poizner staffer asking Meg to drop out of the race. Steve Poizner did in fact create a group that financed liberal Democratic campaigns, like Gray Davis 2002 gubernatorial campaign against Bill Simon, and Poizner has also failed to vote in various elections.”

—Tucker Bounds… Read More

(Blogging from Indian Wells, where Republicans will gather for the State GOP Conventions which begins today…)

At some point in the middle of the day yesterday, I actually looked at the date on my Blackberry just to confirm that it was in fact mid-September of the “off year” and not late May of next year, the election year. It was that crazy yesterday trying to keep up with some of the back and forth between GOP gubernatorial hopefuls Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner yesterday.

Actually (and I apologize for which invariably will be a bad analogy – I’m terrible with my analogies) as I looked from my backyard in South Orange County yesterday into the very dry Cleveland National Forest, with particular focus a small plume of smoke from a not-so-distant wildfire, I thought about the political goings-on of the day, and I realized that tensions are so high between these two campaigns that the GOP primary for Governor is like a dry forest in fire season – one little match can set the whole thing ablaze.

**There is… Read More

Some FR readers have been watching a coutroom in Ventura County where prosecutors from Attorney General Jerry Brown's office have been trying to convince a jury that Joel Angeles, Chief of Staff to Assemblywoman Audra Strickland, had committed crimal battery against some protesters at a local Republican political event. Imagine this — all of the witnesses of this “alleged” incident were the protesters!

Just minutes ago, the jury found Angeles innocent on all counts! Yeeah! Congratulations, Joel!

A hearty congratulations as well to Joel's attorney, Steve Baric. Baric, a former career prosecutor heads up the California Lawyers Association and Secretary of the California Republican Party.… Read More

From today’s San Diego Daily Transcript:

Job Creation is Job No.1 By Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher

California has always been synonymous with the American Dream. "Go west, young man, go west," they said, and people did. From the Gold Rush until today, California has been the place people aspired to achieve their dreams. We have been the global center of innovation, technology, and entrepreneurship.

In the Golden State everyone had a shot at making a better life. The hardest working and most creative people found success here and made California their home. They established the nation’s best schools and universities, built cutting-edge infrastructure and revolutionary high-tech, biotech, entertainment, agriculture and defense industries. Californians made our state the envy of the world.

Unfortunately, those accomplishments are becoming distant memories. Today, California is renowned for record unemployment, budget deficits, and a massive job… Read More

Though not here at the California Republican Party Convention, the campaign of Carly Fiorina for U.S. Senate is showing definate activity. They just announced endorsements from five former Chairmen of the CRP: John Herrington, Tirsi Del Junco, Bob Naylor, Frank Visco, and Mike Montogemery.

Marty Wilson, a senior strategist for the Fiorina campaign, announced to the Republican County Chairmen's Association that former CRP Executive Director and former RNC Regional Field Representative John Peschong would be heading up Fiorina's statewide political operations.

As we have mentioned before, Wilson's business partner, Beth Miller, will be handling campaign communications.

Wilson told County Chairmen that their campaign pollster will be the Tarrance Company and their media consultant will be Fred Davis.

Of course Fiorina's entry into the primary over a year after the entry of Assemblyman Chuck DeVore means she will be playing “catch up” on endorsements for quite some time — with DeVore having claimed the lionshare of elected GOP officeholders around the state…… Read More