It looks like a battle of revenue forecasts is shaping up between Governor Jerry Brown and Mac Taylor, the state’s Legislative Analyst.

Divide number one between the Governor and LAO is over the estimated tax revenues that would come into the state if Brown’s proposal to increase the state’s income and sales taxes makes the ballot and is passed by voters in November. Brown says that these tax increases would result in $6.9 billion in additional revenues. The LAO however projects revenues from those potential higher taxes at $4.8 billion — over $2 billion less than Brown (and that is just for the first year). (Read the Sacramento Bee’s Capitol Alert story on this $2.1 billion divide here.)

The second divide between Brown and Taylor appeared today, when Taylor issued projections for capital gains for Californians at $62 billion — Governor Brown says that capital gains will be $96 billion. That is a large $34 billion difference of opinion, which translates to $3 billion less in tax… Read More

Mary England, the president and CEO of the La Mesa Chamber of Commerce and longtime member of the Lemon Grove City Council, confirmed today for the FlashReportthat she is running for the open 79th State Assembly District seat. England is the first Republican to enter the race.

“As a city councilmember and a small business owner, I have grown increasingly frustrated with the fiscal mismanagement and political game-playing in our state capitol,” England said. “The politicians in Sacramento continue to increase the tax and regulatory burdens on California businesses, seemingly unconcerned about the harm it does to our state’s employment rate.”

Recently reconfigured during the redistricting process, AD 79 includes the cities/communities of La Mesa, Lemon Grove, and some of Spring Valley, as well as portions of the cities of San Diego and Chula Vista, including Bonita and Otay. Party registration in the district is about… Read More

When the final Assembly District lines produced by the controversial California Redistricting Commission were finished, the two Republican Assemblymembers who represent the northernmost portion of the state — Jim Nielsen and Dan Logue — were drawn into the same seat. However, before this became a dicey political situation, one of them, Assemblyman Logue, announced that he would run for a newly created adjacent district (safe Republican) where he also had a family home where he could establish his residency. Conflict averted, right? Wrong. Conflict postponed, until now.

Late last night the FlashReport broke the story that longtime North State Congressman Wally Herger would be retiring at the end of this term, and that he was endorsing State Senator Doug LaMalfa to succeed him. Should LaMalfa win election to Congress, it will cause a special election for his Senate Seat in early 2013. This becomes significant because the newly created 3rd Assembly District, the seat into which Nielsen and Logue were both originally drawn, is perfectly situation within LaMalfa’s district. The adjacent district in which Logue said he would run overlaps… Read More

The following is a guest column jointly authored by Assembly Republican Leader Connie Conway and Assembly Budget Committee Vice Chairman Jim Nielsen…

As California begins to debate the 2012-13 budget, we wanted to share with you a new budget resource that will be available. The Assembly Republican Caucus will be launching the “California Budget Fact Check” website – www.cabudgetfactcheck.com. This site will present factually valid statistical data on the California state budget. The goal of the website is to be a reliable “go-to” resource for continually-updated, fresh budget information.

With the advent of the majority vote budget, there has been a growing lack of timely non-partisan information on the budget. Additionally, much of the technical information provided by the administration and by the non-partisan Legislative Analyst’s Office lacks context. Throughout the year, California Budget Fact Check will be updated utilizing data from the Department of Finance, the Legislative Analyst’s Office, the Controller and other relevant state… Read More

We have confirmed that longtime Republican Congressman Jerry Lewis of the Inland Empire has been making phone calls to supporters today indicating that he is not running for re-election. We are not prepared to say this means he actually is retiring, since he has been rumored to be retiring before, and he keeps running again, and again.

Lewis of course is known as the “Minority Maker” as he was dubbed by the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board for being a prolific proponent of egregious pork-barrel spending in Washington, D.C. The Journal credited Lewis with bearing some of the burden for the 2006 epic loss of the House by Republicans, because of GOP over-spending.

Lewis’ current seat was divvied up in redistricting and there were questions about which seat he would actually chose to run in. If Lewis does retire, this could set the state for moderate San Bernardino County District Attorney Michael Ramos to run. Ramos was a proponent of Governor Brown’s tax increase proposal last year, which was controversial in GOP circles. Also possibly running could be State Senator Bob Dutton, and also there is rumor that if Lewis doesn’t… Read More

We have confirmed that tomorrow 13-term Republican Congressman Wally Herger will announce that he is retiring from the United States House of Representatives at the end of his current term. Herger, who was elected to Congress back during the Reagan years after serving for a brief time in the State Assembly has served California’s North State as a reliably conservative representative.

Herger’s retirement sets the table for a run for Congress by popular rice-farmer and State Senator (and FlashReport blogger) Doug LaMalfa. LaMalfa has represents most of newly created “safe” GOP North State seat.

“Senator LaMalfa is running for Congress, and will do so with the endorsement of Congressman Herger,” GOP consultant Dave Gilliard confirmed for me by phone tonight. Gilliard, who is close with Herger and has been his political consultant for many years, will be running the campaign of La Malfa.

LaMalfa will start out as a strong front runner for this seat, though given that House seats typically come open once a generation, you can be sure that others will look at the race. Should LaMalfa win the seat, that would touch off… Read More

Early this morning the FlashReport broke the news via Twitter that long-serving Republican Congressman Elton Gallegly will not seek reelection this year to Congress. The Congressman told a small group of donors last night. Subsequent to our tweet, the Congressman released a formal statement confirming his decision to retire.

After redistricting, Congressman Gallegly found himself gerrymandered into the same district as neighboring Republican Howard “Buck” McKeon. The popular McKeon serves as Chairman of the the influential House Armed Services Committee. For some time, Gallegly was making noises that he might run, though McKeon currently represents the vast majority of the new seat. Gallegly would have been an underdog in that fight. There was talk that Gallegly might run for a neighboring new seat that is very competitive. Though many doubted whether Gallegly, who hasn’t had to mount a serious campaign for re-election in Congress – ever — would have had the gusto to go through a knock-down campaign.

Gallegly’s announcement sets the… Read More

Veteran political columnist Dan Walters this morning in his Sacramento Bee column made mention of the “Washington Monument Strategy” — referring to putting forward the most politically unpopular cuts in order to make the case not to make cuts, or to make fewer cuts in spending. This strategy, used by liberals (of both parties, I might add), is nothing new…

During the 2008 budget battle, then Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee (now a State Senator) penned a… Read More