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Will he or won’t he

The million dollar question is:  Will State Senator John Campbell hit the 50% plus one vote mark he needs to win the 48th District Congressional seat outright on Tuesday, October 4 or be forced into a run-off.

The race has 17 candidates, but only a few with a prayer of even making a real showing:

Campbell of course had the edge from the get-go (see the Probolsky Poll [insert rolling of the eyes for my shameless self promotion here] from June).  Former Assemblywoman Brewer has spent real money to try to be a player again and Minute Man founder Jim Gilchrist has parlayed his boarder protection volunteering and KFI radio’s John and Ken appearances into something.

Its important to note that the Dems will vote, some will listen to Brewer’s appeal that says a Democrat can’t win so vote for me a "moderate Republican."  In fact polling shows that if they got the message, more than half of all Democrats would choose the moderate GOPer over a Democrat who didn’t have chance.

Look for an analysis of this campaign: consultants, managers, direct mail and media buys soon…