Since December 21, The Real Clear Politics average of all recent polls of Iowa Caucus goers shows a very tight race between Mitt Romney (22.8%) and Ron Paul (21.5%) with Rick Santorum (16.3%) trending up into third place. What to draw from this?

Over this period, Romney and Paul have been fairly consistent in their tracking with Romney’s high-to-low at 19-25 and Paul’s at 20-22 (other than one 19, he reads 22-25). While Newt Gingrich (13.7%) shows an uptick from the freefall of last week (12-16), Rick Santorum (16.3%) is steadily trending up from 15-18.

Romney, Santorum, and Paul all draw from different ideologies and geographies in the state. Romney, the establishment favorite, who has been portrayed as a moderate, will need to draw heavily from moderate east Iowa. Santorum, who is an evangelical, is being propelled by the social conservatives that dominate the northwest of the state. And Paul depends on more libertarian non-establishment conservatives and young activists and will benefit from a strong turnout from college towns like Ames.

In 2008, the RCP average going into the Primary was Huckabee 34.4%, Romney 25.2%, McCain 13%, and Paul… Read More

Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi’s felony theft prosecution by the San Francisco District Attorney for stealing over $2,000 in merchandize from the Union Square Neiman-Marcus store has seen two delays now in simply setting a date for a preliminary hearing. Some observers believe the delays in what would otherwise be a very routine shoplifting case are occurring because the Judge handling the case, Gerardo Sandoval, is himself a former partisan Democrat and elected official, having served on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, is giving special privileges to fellow Democrat Hayashi so she can buy time to stay in the Assembly as long as possible. This is because if Hayashi is convicted of the shoplifting (which will surely happen in a quick trial if the case gets to a jury) she will have to resign from the Assembly, and her seat will become vacant (for a period until a special election is held) thus threatening the Democrats near super-majority hold on the lower house of the Legislature. Sandoval has also excused Hayashi from even having to personally attend the two hearings already held.

The Hayashi felony theft case is now scheduled to be in Sandoval’s… Read More

I have said for a number of years that the purpose of the political process is to persuade people to entrust you with power. Republicans have generated messaging to do just that in the past, and it led to a Republican revival of biblical proportions in the past. We are at such a crossroads now, and the lessons from the past are worth studying to see the future.

The time was 1976. Republicans had just undergone the complete collapse of the party following Watergate, and had substantially less than a two thirds vote in both houses of the Legislature. Jerry Brown has just been elected Governor, and the liberals were in full control of the state. It was a time of darkness for Republicans in California. In those days, members of the Assembly didn’t have to press their buttons for each vote. They could put books down on the button, and each time the bell rang, the vote would be recorded according to whichever button had the books on it. For Republicans, this meant they could put their books on the NO button, leave the Legislature and go fishing. Which is exactly what they did. It didn’t really matter, they lost every single vote there was. Republicans,… Read More

This probably means little to nothing to many readers. However after spending hours with family and friends, and as the resident “politico” of my family I was constantly asked “Who do I vote for?”

I very much respect Governor Huntsman and Speaker Gingrich, and to fight the urge of saying “Anybody but Romney” I had to guide my friends and family to Rick Perry. I know, I know, his debate performances have not been good, however the last person America voted for who had good debates is in the White House and has destroyed jobs. Governor Perry’s record is something that cannot be matched. Numbers speak for themselves, while our great country shed 2 million jobs, Rick Perry’s Texas created 1 million jobs. Through low taxation and sensible regulation.

Mitt Romney has a great presentation in campaign appearances and debates, however in the year that the swing state of Ohio rejects Obamacare by a wide majority, the Republican Party is prepared to nominate a guy who invented Obamacare? Give me a break. (Spoiler alert Romney invented Obamacare) It’s time to nominate a true conservative who knows what it… Read More