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Richard Rider

Lessons from the 2018 election — the bad and the not-so-bad

Here are some lessons to be learned from the 2018 elections — the lessons most important to me.  I’ll start with the bad news — and then list the “sorta” good news.  Well, the “not TOO bad” news.

1.  Our country is moving left, and it’s not likely to reverse direction until we experience the full adverse consequences.  If then.

2.  The number of red states that are LIKELY to stay red is declining — in large part because of shifting demographics.  Some states that are supportive of limited government and low taxes TODAY are likely to reverse direction within the next 4 -12 years.  These are generally GOP-controlled states that I find attractive now but should be avoided longer term.  These sometimes-red-but-soon-blue states include Florida, Texas (yes, TEXAS), Arizona, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada — and likely New Hampshire.
Looking at the 2016 and 2018 voting results, the remaining states likely to remain GOP (with lower taxes) for the longer term are Tennessee (my personal favorite), Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho (currently the most popular net domestic migration state), Louisiana, Kansas, Indiana, and the two Dakota states.

3.  Voter fraud is almost always committed by the Democrats.  The Florida debacle is only the latest example — the most obvious example.  It’s “iffy” whether the courts will overturn these corrupt “popular” voter outcomes.

4.  Because of #3, the close races will usually end up being won by the Democrats. “Whatever It Takes” should be the official Democratic Party motto.

5. For various reasons, most of the rich people’s money now supports Democrats.  This may change, but things are not looking promising.  It’s trendy to be smugly progressive — while giving money to Republicans can have concrete adverse consequences.

6. Prepare for an onslaught of CA tax and fee increases — on both the state and local level. With the failure of the repeal of the last gas tax increase (Prop 6), Democrat’s will now think it’s open season on taxpayers.  With no bag limit.  And expect the passage of more spending “mandates,” which “sadly” require more tax increases.

7.  Democrats have always had control of the ballot book wording of CA state propositions.  With the blatant fraud perpetrated by the Secretary of State writing a false “title and summary” for Prop 6, it appears that there’s nothing to keep this con job from expanding. Apparently the state courts — owned and operated by the Democrats — will not intervene.

8.  Taking its cue from the Secretary of State, local governments (almost all controlled by Democrats) will (and ARE) writing heavily biased LOCAL prop ballot summaries.  The best example is the San Diego prop (Measure L) to DOUBLE the salaries of the mayor and city council.  This huge salary increases were not included in the ballot title and summary.  Instead, it covered some minor restrictions on their benefits. It passed with over 70% of the vote.  The title and summary is what the VAST majority of voters rely on when deciding how to vote.  We were gulled. Again.

9.  Locally my city of San Diego will vote on a sales tax increase by November, 2020, placed there by the veto-proof Democrat city council.  The increase will be 1/2 to 1 percent.  I GUARANTEE it.  It will likely pass in our increasingly Democrat city — especially if it can require only a simple majority.
Indeed, by November 2020 just about EVERY city in San Diego County (and most in California) will try to raise their sales tax — for the children.  Well actually, for the pensions.  The only cities that won’t raise their sales tax are the ones that ALREADY have raised their sales tax.  Upon reflection, it appears that some of THOSE cities may well try to raise their sales tax again.

10.  There will be huge push statewide to gut Prop 13 — starting by making businesses pay their “fair share” of taxes with a $9 billion property tax increase — ignoring the high taxes that businesses ALREADY pay in CA.

11.  By 2020 we will raise our CA corporate state INCOME tax.  We’ll do this even though we NOW have the highest corporate income tax of any continental state west of Iowa — our economic competitors.   Remember, this year the CA legislature seriously considered a bill to raise the CA corporate income tax from 8.84% to 18.84%.  It failed, but the message is clear to businesses.

12.  California is lost to the progressives.  It will REMAIN lost — by a wide and increasing voter  margin.  And it’s not the “illegal” vote that’s powering this trend.  Most legally voting Californians are consistently voting for the liberals — the most left-wing liberals.
The California GOP will start the 2019 legislative year with 19 Assembly members (out of 80), 10 State Senators (out of 40) and 8-9 members of Congress (out of 53).
You can thank your CA media and colleges for effectively selling socialism and nannyism to the electorate.  If you are conservative or libertarian and you want to stay in the Golden State, you’re simply going to have to accept the fact that California is “Progressiveland” — probably for your lifetime at least — or you’ll have to flee.  There is no third option, or third outcome.
BTW, this is why I strongly favor CalEXIT. Without California, the Democrats will be the minority faction in our nation.  I’ll GLADLY move if CalEXIT comes to pass.  It won’t become law, but I’m just sayin’.  Review my article on this:

https://tinyurl.com/let-CA-secede

***

To be fair and balanced, let me give you the good news for Republicans trending from this election. There is a little.  Very little.

1. The U.S. Senate will remain Republican for two more years.  During this time, the GOP should appoint every possible judge and bureaucrat it can.  The 60 Senate vote majority roadblock is gone, thanks to the Democrats’ actions in 2012.  Judges will be our last bulwark of defense against statism, because after 2020 it’s likely the Dems will have BOTH the Presidency AND the Senate (to go with their House majority).  Wait . . . this is supposed to be the GOOD news.

2.  Call me wild and crazy, but I do NOT think California will actually implement single payer health care.  It can’t.  It’s a “tax too far,” even in this state.  Some day soon we may well end up with NATIONAL single payer health care, but states simply cannot adopt such a policy on their own.  It’s too expensive.  And too many cash cows would leave the state.
Even Bernie Sanders’ socialist Vermont, which initially passed the single payer mandate, reluctantly rescinded the measure when they pondered how the devil to pay for their madness.  And the CA proposal is even nuttier than the Vermont plan — offering free, no co-payment, no deductible health care to anyone — ANYONE — who walks into a California medical office or hospital — including residents from other states and all foreign nationals — legal and illegal.

3.  There is no longer any real reason to give money to most California GOP partisan candidates for office. Recognition of this fact will save CA conservatives many millions of wasted dollars each election cycle.
Only a handful of CA candidates for the House of Representatives will be running in competitive races in 2020.  With the Democrats holding 75% super-majority control of both the CA Assembly and Senate, the state legislature no longer matters when it comes to Sacramento representation.  Statewide offices are all owned by the  Democrats.  Same for our two CA U.S. Senators.  The CA GOP will become just a shadow of a shadow government.
Still want to give money to help the cause?  Good!  Give to the libertarian and conservative think tanks.  We’ve lost the battle for votes in CA — settle in for the longer term battle of ideas.  Reason, Heritage, CATO, Hoover, American Enterprise Institute, Institute for Justice — these are just a few of the many great choices for giving.  And many of you will be able to write off such donations — political donations are NOT deductible.

4.  In the past, Democrats have blamed Republicans for California’s problems — however ludicrous that sounds.  While the Democratic Party has had a majority in both CA state houses since 1970, we’ve elected a number of Republican Governors.  Most were centrists at best — Arnold turned into an out-and-out Democrat after a couple of years in office.
In addition, it used to take a 2/3 vote to pass CA budgets, so a couple GOP legislators had to vote to get ’em passed in the good old days. But now the legislature can pass budgets with a simple(ton) majority vote — they don’t need no stinkin’ Republicans.
That lame excuse — “the GOP shared in or even initiated our unwise decisions” — no longer has the slightest validity. Democrats have owned state government since 2010. Whatever happens, they did it.  No “shared responsibility.” 
 

5. In a similar vein, CA politicians from both parties have “kicked the can down the road” for decades — starting with the pension obligations.  Now that the bills are pouring in, it will be the Democrats’ responsibility to deal with it.  Whether their actions result in declining services or higher taxes (probably both), the Democrats will be doing it.  Karma.

6. Taxes will be raised, but we’ve probably soaked the rich are much as is possible. The next tax increases will have to be broad-based.  Certainly a state increase in the sales tax is coming — even though we already have the highest statewide sale tax in the nation.  And expect an income tax increase for the $30K-250K taxpayers.  If possible, the Dems will try to overturn Prop 13 and levy MAJOR property tax increases.
And, of course, there’s always the “make corporations pay their fair share” advocates — further raising the corporate state income taxes and God knows what other business taxes.   Fortunately for California, corporations care more about California sunshine than making profits.  That’s the Democrats’ hope, at any rate . . . .
Soaking the rich is, of course, popular with voters in California (hell, it’s popular EVERYWHERE).  But when the tax increases start hitting everyone else, that’s not going to be a popular thing for  politicians to brag about.  Fun times ahead in the Golden State!  Well, in that regard, at least. 

7.  In my San Diego County, the repeal of the gas tax increase (Proposition 6) actually passed!  It was close, but it passed — thanks to Carl DeMaio’s prodigious efforts.  It failed miserably in most of the rest of the Golden State.  My region of California is somewhat less insane than YOUR region!

8.  Last but not least, the chance of an asteroid hitting California this century is really quite low.  That’s genuine good news!  (I’m trying to finish this article on an upbeat note.)