I was on one of my statistical journeys through U.S. Census data when I unexpectedly stumbled upon this the following important fact:
According to the latest census figures, the population of San Diego County — a huge county larger than the state of Rhode Island that is home to over 3.3 million people — barely increased in population in the last reported year. From July 1 2017 to July 1, 2018, the county population grew by only 5,679 people. That’s an annual growth rate of 0.17%. If this trend continues, in the coming 10 years, the county will grow by less than 2%. That 2% is NOT “per year” — that’s per TEN years.
The most recent California STATE population growth has also been slowing. But slow as our state population growth is, it’s still growing two to three times faster than San Diego County. Moreover, while the nation’s overall population growth has also been slowing, the last two years the other 49 states’ population has been growing 50% faster than California.
From what I can find online, SANDAG last projected our county’s 2050 population in the year 2013. No further updates are available. San Diego County’s population was projected to be 4,068,759 in 2050. Using the last available year’s growth rate of 0.17% as the average future growth rate, it now appears that our county population will be 3,524,120 by mid-century. That’s 544,639 less people than SANDAG’s optimistic and outdated 2013 projection.
Again, let me emphasize that this slowing population growth rate has been going on for several years — at the national, state AND local level. There is no reason to think it’s going to reverse direction. It seems more likely that the growth will further slow, and even go negative. Indeed, this last census survey found that no less than TEN states’ population growth rate had actually turned negative.