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The late hit is the fear of every consultant, candidate and spouse of a candidate. And I am sure, whatever form it takes, mail or TV or radio or phone call, the late hit will always be in play as long as there are elections.

However, I believe, and it seems every other consultant I talk to, thinks the late hit is ineffective and often times backfires.

To illustrate this point, does anyone remember that just days before the Presidential election in 2000, it was released that George W. Bush had a DUI back in 1976? Most American’s don’t. But at the time it made Bush, a responsible father and husband and governor, into a sympathetic figure, being attacked by those who wanted to bring him down. Ostensibly to help the other guy he was running against, who ever that was. I can’t remember.

So if you (read your consultant) has ‘the silver bullet’ hit mail piece on your opponent printed and ready to mail just days before the election, think twice. It could and probably will backfire. And condemn you to be… Read More

There is a controversy in Mill Valley over a physics teacher who annually fires a gun into a piece of wood as a hands-on way to teach his students how to calculate the speed of a bullet. For more than 10 years, teacher David Lapp has brought his M-1 Carbine rifle (leftover from Lapp’s days as a military police officer in the Korean War) to school to conduct one of his many unusual physics experiments. Lapp has had the approval of his principal, but apparently the district was not aware of it. Critics say that he is violating state law by bringing a gun to school.

I’m a big supporter of gun rights, but I honestly don’t know if I’d want my kids’ teacher bringing his gun to school. It’s not that I wouldn’t trust the… Read More

Reps. Ken Calvert and Gary Miller both Republicans representing parts of Orange County are fed up with OC 5th Dist. Supervisorial candidate Cassie DeYoung’s antics.

DeYoung, is a councilwoman in Laguna Niguel running for the south county seat against former Assemblywoman Pat Bates (a client of my firm). Bates is well liked and has virtually all the local elected and partisan endorsements.

DeYoung has been sending mail knocking Calvert and Miller for supporting transportation solutions that she says would be bad for Orange County.

Its a bold move on the part of her consultants. And it backfired. First the chairman of the Orange County Transportation Authority Art Brown release a letter pulling his endorsement (one of the few DeYoung had) because, and I am paraphrasing, it’s pretty stupid to attack two sitting Members of Congress that represent big chunks of Orange County and who have huge say over federal dollars coming to OC. I think Congressmen Calvert and Miller who have both been Probolsky Research clients would have let the first mail piece slide. But the … Read More

My Assemblyman, Chuck DeVore, has told me that he will be “elsewhere” tomorrow night, but NOT honoring ‘El Presidente de Mexico’ when he is in Sacramento.

Will others be joining in this silent protest of Fox?

If you hear of other legislators who won’t be there tonight, let me know or post a comment!

[Update: I have been told that Senator Tom McClintock will also be ABSENT from the Vincente Fox Speech… ]… Read More

Yesterday, the Hercules City Council voted to use its eminent domain powers to force Wal-Mart to sell property that the retailer intends to build a 100,000 square foot store.

Why? Because the residents of Hercules don’t want Wal-Mart’s type of customer (read “low-income”) coming to their community to shop. They see their city as the East Bay’s Sausalito or Tiburon (most East Bay residents are now saying, “Hercules?? Are you kidding me?”).

Here’s what the city’s vice mayor said just before the vote (as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle): "The city of… Read More

Looks like the dukes have come off in the regular primary election in the 50th Congressional District as conservative businessman Bill Hauf turns on the ‘contrast campaign’ — with this instructive mail piece to Republican voters, reminding them that Bilbray does not support 2nd Amendment rights.

You can be sure that the next couple of weeks will see a slew of this kind of mail, and conservatives are reminded that there IS someone about whom they can get excited about who is actively campaigning for the two-year seat.

I’m sure this kind of mail will be challenging for Bilbray, who would probably prefer to spend this time campaigning to Democrats about how he is as good on many of their issues as his Democratic opponent, Francine Busby. But instead, Bilbray will have to try and defend his not-so-conservative record to Republicans – good… Read More

The race between incumbent San Diego Supervisor Bill Horn and the local media elite has really heated up again over the last week. In the last couple days local TV stations ‘broke’ the news that Bill Horn, an avocado rancher, had some of his employees living on the property in what sounded like a rather comfortable trailer. Well, I can honestly write now that every rumor I’ve ever heard from Horn detractors who’ve whispered for years ‘the story is going to break’ or ‘the paper is investigating’ has now been given more than its share of public light. When and if Horn pulls this off at least we’ll all be spared the endless rumors and speculation from the downtown types about when ‘the big story is gonna break.”

That being said, I haven’t seen much from the Thompson campaign, and I don’t think a string of what appear to be petty scandals is going to take down a conservative Republican San Diego Supervisor in a conservative Republican district. On the other hand, I have seen recent, well done Horn mailers. One issue in particular from those mailings is going to sting Thompson pretty hard: his… Read More