If you live in the 50th Congressional District in San Diego County, or the 35th State Senate District in Orange County – today is your day to vote. Special elections are taking place today in both of these districts! Remember that the FlashReport recommends any Republican BUT Bilbray in CD 50, and a vote for Diane Harkey in SD 35. There is also a race underway for Mayor in the city of Long Beach — look for a special FR look at how that race goes in tomorrow issue, or maybe Thursday. The Governor today in unveiling a greenhouse-gas emission reduction plan in, of course, San Francisco. The FlashReport will spend much more time focusing on this proposal, but just on the face of it, given that the cornerstone of the plan involves regulation of business that will be quite costly, you have to ask yourself how one state out of 50 can engage in such an aggressive program unilaterally, and not expect… Read More

1:30 am UPDATE: 100% in,Bilbray by 880 votes. Approximately 10,000 left to count, but Roach would need to get approximately 20% of those versus 10% on Bilbray’s part to change this…ain’t gonna happen. The FlashReport calls it for Brian. Congratulations!

Oh yeah, a run off against Busby in June. Will the conservatives coalesce behind Bilbray, since the primary for the next term is on the same ballot? There will be tremendous pressure to do so. Anyone taking a bite out of Brian on "the other part of the ballot" will also be helping Busby in her effort to win the remainder of the Cunningham term. A big risk for anyone wanting totake that chance.

Based on the number of GOP votes cast for all candidates, especially when many said low turnout and Republican disenchantment could drive a Busby outright victory, I say she’s cooked in June. Make that November too.

FRANCINE BUSBY 56147 43.92% … Read More

For those who want to follow election returns tonight, you can follow the links below: SAN DIEGO COUNTY REGISTRAR – 50TH CD LIVE RETURNS ORANGE COUNTY REGISTRAR – 35TH SD LIVE RETURNS Look for early returns on absentee ballot results, and a longer wait for the rest.… Read More

See attached invitation below for Tuesday nite Election Central.

This may be the first and last time I do this. FR Publisher and Big BloggerJon Fleischman, and therefore hisBaby Bloggers like me, have a general rule that we won’t post information in advance of events on these pages…and for good reason.

As Jon puts it, "we have a pretty steadfast policy of NOT promoting events. The reason is actually very simple. As soon as I publish something about an upcoming event, or attach an invitation to an email from me as publisher, I LITERALLY get bombarded with HUNDREDS of invitations to events. Everyone from the State GOP, candidates for state office, federal office, local office, even non-CA events, debates, rallies, women’s fed meetings, etc."

Sounds like loads of fun. With that said, I am going to make an exception, PLEASE NOTE, in this ONE case only, because 1) there is only one race in town, 2) there is only one election central tomorrow, and 3) the entire wheelbarrow full of Republican candidates in the 50th have been invited and will… Read More

UPDATE 8:10 pm: SurveyUSA poll…Thanks, Brandon Powers, for alerting us:

Busby 47 Roach 14 Bilbray 13 Kaloogian 9 Morrow 5 Uke 3

These numbers are tantalizingly close to Datamar’s, except for Busby, shown here within striking distance of the magic 50%. The reason is the sample. Here is the SurveyUSA explanation:

Datamar is relying on past voting history to determine who is a likely voter, including in its survey only voters who voted in both 2004 and 2002. SurveyUSA is relying on the stated intention and the stated passion of poll respondents to determine who is a likely voter. SurveyUSA’s likely voter model detects more enthusiasm among Democrats than among Republicans in CA 50. That is reflected in SurveyUSA’s voter-turnout model, and in the data we present here. Datamar shows 54% of likely voters to be Republican. SurveyUSA shows 45% of likely voters to be Republican. Datamar shows 32% of likely voters to be Democrat. SurveyUSA shows 37% of likely voters to be Democrat. Datamar shows 49% of likely voters to be male. SurveyUSA shows 51% of likely voters to be… Read More

At the top of today’s main page is a link to column written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in today’s Wall Street Journal. In it, he basically calls for tough border-security measures but als a "a policy of compassion" towards those millions of illegal aliens who are already living in America. It’s worth a read as the opinion of California’s Governor matters a lot in this debate.

Also leading the main page is a reminder that the FlashReport has some recommendations for voters in San Diego’s 50th Congressional District and Orange County’s 35 State Senate District, where special elections will take place tomorrow. It is clear that LOW VOTER TURNOUT will be impacting both races.

If you’ve been following the 50th Congressional District race, there is a chance for you to get some notoriety on the FlashReport. One of our San Diego Correspondents, La Mesa Councilman Barry Jantz, is inviting FR Readers to weigh in with their PREDICTIONS. He writes: Pick the winner in the 50th…… Read More

At the top of today’s main page is a link to column written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in today’s Wall Street Journal. In it, he basically calls for tough border-security measures but also for "a policy of compassion" towards those millions of illegal aliens who are already living in America. It’s worth a read as the opinion of California’s Governor matters a lot in this debate.

Also leading the main page is a reminder that the FlashReport has some recommendations for voters in San Diego’s 50th Congressional District and Orange County’s 35 State Senate District, where special elections will take place tomorrow. It is clear that LOW VOTER TURNOUT will be impacting both races.

If you’ve been following the 50th Congressional District race, there is a chance for you to get some notoriety on the FlashReport. One of our San Diego Correspondents, La Mesa Councilman Barry Jantz, is inviting FR Readers to weigh in with their PREDICTIONS. He writes:

**There is more – click the link**… Read More

ELECTION DAY IS TUESDAY – IT’S NOT OVER UNTIL 8PM

Over the last few days seemingly smart people have suggested to me that the race for the 35th Senate seat is over, done and in the bag. I like that they all say it is in the bag for Diane Harkey, but the fact is there is still an Election Day on Tuesday and anything can happen.

I will be the first to admit that absentee balloting is becoming the method of choice for campaigns and voters, especially in this series of special elections in OC. But Election Day is still a major factor and any campaign that concedes it is crazy.

Don’t forget to vote.

BILL JONES STILL SUCKS

I don’t want to recount all the ways, Bill Jones sucks. But I will highlight one that is evident today. When he was Secretary of State doing his best to avoid appearing like a Republican or taking any action to help Republicans he also made some really bad policy decisions. Chief among them was the ill-fated policy guidance he gave to California’s 58… Read More