The second-guessing and backseat driving has now hit epidemic proportions, as every pundit, political science professor, and columnist in the state has begun to explain exactly why the Schwarzenegger reform effort has failed. Nowhere has that criticism been more intense than among the ranks of Republican campaign consultants who are not affiliated with the governor’s committees. And while I have certainly not avoided the opportunities offered by an always-willing news media to offer my thoughts as well, at least today it may make sense to worry less about what has happened and begin to think about what comes next.

I have previously written that Schwarzenegger can plausibly claim victory if he passes either Proposition 77 or 75, on the grounds that he will be able to argue that at least he has opened the door for further reform by achieving either the redistricting reform or paycheck protection that those two initiatives offer. If one or the other passes, there’s a good chance he pulls Prop 74 across the finish line… Read More

Last night, I attended a private event in San Francisco, a reception with Helen Thomas, the veteran UPI reporter who covered the White House for nearly 40 years. After we mixed and mingled, Thomas gave a speech and took Q&A from the audience.

I expected Thomas’ speech to be an interesting journey through the administrations of the eight presidents she covered—Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton. And while I expected Thomas’ politics to be left of center, what I was not prepared for was the vitriolic speech she gave against President Bush.

Before Thomas started her speech, she was introduced by a founding partner of the hosting firm who reminded her that the audience was of mixed political views. She clearly didn’t care.… Read More

Shakespeare may have hated lawyers, but there was not much polling goingon by the monarchy at the time. I think he might have thought otherwise if there had been pollsters then.

I have to admit I have hired pollsters and even repeated their findings. I apologize.

After seeing Bill Whalen’s piece on new poll numbers hereand last weeks here. Then reading FlashReports exclusive interview with Arnie Steinberg here as well as LA Times, PPIC, Field, Survey USA polls and the elusive CRP/Arnold Internal polling, I have concluded they should all go. Most will have been shown to be wrong by some degree today.

Also, the real focus on pollsleaves public policy behind and focuses discussion onthe numbers . Our ideas are right regardless of the polling. But, if all we talk… Read More

I’ll leave the pollsters alone in this blog (as long as we are allowedopen season on them in the not-too-distant future).

But, speaking of Prop 73 (see Matt Cunningham’s prior post), I heard a pastor talk to his congregation about it on Sunday. Although he did not expressly advocate for it, you can’t be too careful these days, so I won’t mention the church (I hope no jack-booted IRS thugs show up at my doorstep asking questions after this).

It was the way this pastor said it, and I paraphrase:

"Whether you think Arnold Schwarzenegger or Warren Beatty is the celebrity that best knows the issues, that’s up to you," he said in jest. But, when it comes to Proposition 73, the school won’t even give a band-aid to my daughter without calling me….so I can’t even imagine when it comes to a medical procedure. "I’m not telling you how to vote or anything. But if you want to know more about the issue, you can go to our church website, and we have a link to YES ON 73, and you can read more about it."

You gotta… Read More

Don’t get me wrong I’m still ticked at pollsters. One other political story caught my eye.

However,one other political item caught my attention. Liberal Democrats always try to limit our opportunities, while Republicans are the party of Hope and Opportunity.

Liberals just don’t know how to reach Conservatives.When I read an account of the Breasts not Bombs" protest in Sacramento yesterday. Read it here.

I just don’t get why we have to limit ourselves so? Why not both?… Read More

My good friend and fellow FR contributor Mike Spence has suggested each of us in the arena of public opinion should find ourselves in the fiery depths of whatever afterlife awaits evil researchers.

While I may take issue with the methodology used by many of the pollsters that have released results this cycle and I will talk more about this in an election analysis piece in the near future, the bottom line is, we are researchers. We just call it like we see it. If you want to blame someone, how about the media for blindly publishing our work product.

NOTE: I mean no disrespect to the various news outlets that publish and broadcast my results after careful consideration. … Read More

Last night, I enjoyed watching a forum, put on by ABC television, on the ballot propostions that will appear on tomorrow’s ballot. The participants in the forum were Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi (D), Controller Steve Westly (D), Attorney General Bill Lockyer (D), LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo (D), State Senator Tom McClintock (R), State Assemblyman Keith Richman ("R), and State Finance Director (on leave) Tom Campbell (R). Four Democrats and three Republicans (if you include Richman, who is iffy).

Hats off to ABC for putting on the program. Their moderators, Pete Wilson (no relation) and Marc Brown did a fine job. As someone who is actually pretty familiar with the measures (nothing like going out and speaking on these measures as an incentive to really understand them), I was more looking for interesting dynamics from the panelists. Boy did I get what I was NOT looking for, towards the end of the show.

STARK CONTRAST: CAMPBELL vs. MCCLINTOCK Moderator Pete Wilson, when talking about Proposition 73, the Parental Notification… Read More

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