My good friend and fellow FR contributor Mike Spence has suggested each of us in the arena of public opinion should find ourselves in the fiery depths of whatever afterlife awaits evil researchers.

While I may take issue with the methodology used by many of the pollsters that have released results this cycle and I will talk more about this in an election analysis piece in the near future, the bottom line is, we are researchers. We just call it like we see it. If you want to blame someone, how about the media for blindly publishing our work product.

NOTE: I mean no disrespect to the various news outlets that publish and broadcast my results after careful consideration. … Read More

Shakespeare may have hated lawyers, but there was not much polling goingon by the monarchy at the time. I think he might have thought otherwise if there had been pollsters then.

I have to admit I have hired pollsters and even repeated their findings. I apologize.

After seeing Bill Whalen’s piece on new poll numbers hereand last weeks here. Then reading FlashReports exclusive interview with Arnie Steinberg here as well as LA Times, PPIC, Field, Survey USA polls and the elusive CRP/Arnold Internal polling, I have concluded they should all go. Most will have been shown to be wrong by some degree today.

Also, the real focus on pollsleaves public policy behind and focuses discussion onthe numbers . Our ideas are right regardless of the polling. But, if all we talk… Read More

I’m as eager as any political junkie to see the outcome of today’s balloting. On the state level, I’m confident Prop. 73 will pass and grimly hopeful Prop. 75 will crawl across the finish line. In case anyone is wondering how I voted, here it is:

I don’t think I’ve voted "yes" on so many ballot initiatives in my life.

Here in Orange County, the big vote is on Measure D, which would give the Orange County Fire Authority a portion of the future… Read More

So yesterday I’m merging onto to 22 from the 55, on my way to a meeting of the OCTA’s Regional Planning and Highways Committee. Off to my left I notice a huge orange banner hanging on the side of the Planned Parenthood building in Orange:

I never fail to be amazed at the pro-choice movement’s combination of intellectual dishonesty and timidity. Legalized abortion advocacy groups like Planned Parenthood are petrified of an honest debate on an issue like requiring minor girls to notify their parents before having an abortion.

The above slogan, "Keep Teens Safe," is a perfect case in point. It has nothing to do with the issue. The sign might as well have read:

Or, to be accurate:… Read More

The second-guessing and backseat driving has now hit epidemic proportions, as every pundit, political science professor, and columnist in the state has begun to explain exactly why the Schwarzenegger reform effort has failed. Nowhere has that criticism been more intense than among the ranks of Republican campaign consultants who are not affiliated with the governor’s committees. And while I have certainly not avoided the opportunities offered by an always-willing news media to offer my thoughts as well, at least today it may make sense to worry less about what has happened and begin to think about what comes next.

I have previously written that Schwarzenegger can plausibly claim victory if he passes either Proposition 77 or 75, on the grounds that he will be able to argue that at least he has opened the door for further reform by achieving either the redistricting reform or paycheck protection that those two initiatives offer. If one or the other passes, there’s a good chance he pulls Prop 74 across the finish line… Read More

I have found in this world of ‘breaking news’ that you have to make a judgement call on when something is ‘rumor’ and when it is ‘fact’. My general principle is the ‘rule of 6’ – if I hear a rumor and can find six credible sources that can confirm this rumor, even off of the record, then I feel comfortable going forward… While I had been hearing this story for a few days, last night – the ‘rule of 6’ kicked into effect — so here is what I’ve heard: SCHWARZENEGGER TO PICK NEW CHIEF OF STAFF Since his election as Governor, Patricia Clarey has served honorably as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Chief of Staff. Her pick was a surprise to some that assumed the Governor would pick someone with a higher profile. Clarey, as a Deputy Chief of Staff to former Governor Pete Wilson, had always kept a lower profile in that administration. One can only imagine the challenge… Read More

Common sense does not always prevail in a highly charged election. It may or may not tonight. Before the polls close I wanted to share my common sense thoughts on today’s election.

Common Sense says – Hey school nurse, as you are whisking my daughter to the abortion clinic can you give my cell phone a ring or shoot me a quick e-mail. If my daughter is in need of a secret abortion, I obviously stopped communicating with her long ago. However when she spends the next 20 years in a state of depression, I would like to know why.

Common Sense says – Dear teacher-most of us have jobs that require us to work 12 months a year, 8 hours a day. We have to produce a measurable product …oh and we can get fired at any time. How rude of us to ask that you are not given Federal Judge status after just a few years on the job.

Common Sense says – Hey Mr. /Mrs./ Ms./ GLBTG/ Legislator -I have $10 in my pocket. I can’t spend $20. It is a hard concept to grasp, but we know you can do… Read More

Bob Novak’s Weekly Political Report has a section today where he makes his predictions on Ballot Measure Mania across America…

Here is what he has to say:

California: The special recall election that brought Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) to power in 2003 was the clearest demonstration to date that all public polling in California is basically worthless. Polls on Schwarzenegger’s slate of ballot propositions yield such wildly different results — one proposition approaches two-thirds support in one poll and fails miserably in others — that we will ignore them completely. We anticipate, first of all, that non-partisan redistricting (Prop 77) and state spending caps (… Read More