Throughout the day, I have had the opportunity to talk to many of the other supporters of the House version of the immigration bill. Despite the President’s speech and the additional activity on the Senate side, I have yet to run into anyone who is changing their position. If anything most members are becoming more resolved in their support of the House’s enforcement only bill. If the Senate goes in the direction it looks like they are going, there will be a big gulf between the two houses. The House is where the people are.… Read More

In the 74th Assembly District Primary race between Garrick (Coronado Communications), Waldron (GilliardBlanningWysocki), and Packard (self) a ‘strategy’ memorandum from Waldron’s campaign consultants, obviously unintentionally made public, has been circulating over the past week. The contents clearly demonstrate exactly why every political consultant cringes at the thought of their honest strategic and tactical thoughts being made public.

The memorandum details the results of what must have been rather disheartening Waldron polling. “We have our work cut out for us” the memo states in the first paragraph. Generally, this is not the kind of encouragement a candidate who is considering sinking 100k of their own money into a race likes to hear.

It then goes on to describe in agonizing detail that Waldron’s Escondido base, where she has been a councilwoman for a fair number of years, is not a base after all. In fact Waldron’s positives in Escondido, the only place she currently has significant name identification, are 16.2%. Not bad until you read further and see Waldron’s negatives are 21.6%. In her hometown. The… Read More

I’ve known Shawn and Michelle Steel since 1988. Both have been kind any generous to me over the years. In fact, Shawn played a key role as a mentor and a role-model for me back in my college days when I was an activist and a leader in Young Americans for Freedom, Shawn having served as State Co-Chairman of Cal-YAF with Dana Rohrabacher back in the day. This year, Michelle is running for the State Board of Equalization. She would make a fine board-member. Ironically (and inconveniently for many people, including myself) another strong conservative, Ray Haynes, is also running in the same race for BOE. I’ve known Ray since 1990 and also consider him a close friend. Ray has been in the legislature for many years, and has been a consistent voice of sanity in the liberal chaos that dominates the State Capitol.

I penned an early analysis of this Haynes/Steel donnybrook back in August of last year, and in that… Read More

As FR readers know, there is now a vibrant primary gearing up for who will represent the former seat of "Duke" Cunningham in the next Congress. On June 6th, all voters will be asked to choose between Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off for the special election for the remaining months of Duke’s unexpired term. But GOPers only will also be able to choose their nominee to take on Francine Busby (again) this November with the announcement that conservative, wealthy businessman Bill Hauf will actively compete for the nomination.

The 50th Congressional District is home to a lot of conservative Republican voters. In the recent special election, roughly 70% of votes to GOP candidates went to conservative/reform minded candidates. Moderate former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Bilbray won the very crowded primary with about 15% of the total votes cast for Republicans. You can be sure that Bilbray beat out his nearest competitor, conservative businessman Eric Roach, because independent, Decline-to-State, and Democratic voters could ‘cross-over’ in the special and vote for Bilbray. It wouldn’t… Read More

As FR readers know, there is now a vibrant primary gearing up for who will represent the former seat of "Duke" Cunningham in the next Congress. On June 6th, all voters will be asked to choose between Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off for the special election for the remaining months of Duke’s unexpired term. But GOPers only will also be able to choose their nominee to take on Francine Busby (again) this November with the announcement that conservative, wealthy businessman Bill Hauf will actively compete for the nomination.

The 50th Congressional District is home to a lot of conservative Republican voters. In the recent special election, roughly 70% of votes to GOP candidates went to conservative/reform minded candidates. Moderate former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Bilbray won the very crowded primary with about 15% of the total votes cast for Republicans. You can be sure that Bilbray beat out his nearest competitor, conservative businessman Eric Roach, because independent, Decline-to-State, and Democratic voters could ‘cross-over’ in the special and vote for Bilbray. It wouldn’t… Read More

Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R-Irvine) is gifted with, shall we say, an interesting sense of humor. He also is rather prolific in writing about his unique experiences as a freshman member of the State Assembly on his website.

His latest posting was priceless, and simply must reprint an excerpt from it here, was part of a large post entitled, "Toilets and Taxes"…

…AB 2496 by John Laird (D-Santa Cruz), mandates ultra-low flow toilets and urinals that use even less water then the now infamous low-flow toilets in use today (is it illegal to flush twice?). Don’t look now, but, liberal fears aside, Big Government has walked right past our bedrooms and has planted itself firmly in our bathrooms. As I listened… Read More

KFI’s John and Ken are the most listened to talk radio show hosts during the LA Drive time. Today, Steve Schmidt, the Governor’s Campaign Manager was on to discuss Arnold view of the National Guard proposal from DC.

Schmidt speaking on the Governor’s behalf asked critical question aboutthe Bush proposal. He said the Governor wants a "permanent solution.". One option would be to support the creation of the California Border Police. Then we don’t have to worry about stress on the Guard.

Schmidt is an able street fighter for the Governor.

Schimdt promised to call back with a report about the upcoming Arnold/Vincente Fox meeting. You can register to hear a podcast of the interview here.… Read More

Publicly traded companies have certain ‘quiet periods’ when they cannot talk about their earnings and insiders can’t buy and sell stock. I am not advocating any sort of quiet period for politics but the idea does have merits for consultants like me. Here’s why:

On an average day I get asked 50 times by another consultants or voters or activists or member of the media what I think about any given candidates’ chances in the upcoming Primary Election. I am flattered that they respect my opinion and am glad to offer it when appropriate.

However, very often my opinion is mixed with hard knowledge of polling data. This often presents a dilemma for me, and other political professionals I presume. I never want to say anything bad about a client or their chances of success–even if I know they are going down in flames – I don’t want people to think I have no idea what I am talking about if I say super positive things simply in the name of loyalty.

So when you ask a political consultant how a client of is going to do – keep in mind that the answer might be more wishful thinking rather than a cold… Read More