FIELD POLL SKEWED TO THE LEFT I spoke last week on this commentary page about the insatiable appetite that the media has for these last-minute polls. Today there are many stores on the release of the "Field Poll." Let me start by reminding everyone that in order to accurately poll the electorate, you need to be able to figure out WHO IS GOING TO VOTE so that you can try to poll a REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE in order to be accurate. I haven’t found anyone yet who can tell me with any degree of certainty who it is that is going to turn out for this Special Election. There are so many different factors at play, from voter fatigue to trying to analyze which interests will mobilize for particular measures. So, before you get all concerned about these latest polling stories, remember this admonision.

Relative to the Field Poll itself, I would share these keen observations from a friend and expert on California politics… [I won’t cite him by name because I don’t know if he wants the… Read More

Sen. John Campbell was in Washington last week making the rounds and raising money. In a reception last Wednesday, Campbell brought in $80,000 and also found time to drop by areception hosted by Reps. Pete Sessions (TX), Mike Rogers (MI), and Jim McCrery (LA) for the top Republican challenger candidates of 2006. Each of those candidates raised over $80,000.

Vartan Djihanian, former communications director for Rep. Buck McKeon, has returned to California to serve as district director for Sen. Bill Morrow (R-Oceanside). Eventually, Vartan will move over to the campaign side and run Morrow’s campaign for Congress. Vartan got his start in 1994, while still in high school, as a volunteer on Jim Rogan’s first campaign for the State Assembly in the wake of Pat Nolan’s… Read More

The rise of local Republican Party organizations with strong volunteer precinct programs has coincided with the decline of the grassroots ground capabilities of most of the Republican affiliated clubs. There could be cause and effect to some degree, but the decline of grassroots oriented clubs probably began in the mid 1990’s. Many organizations were able to bluff about their capabilities for a while (a bluff I think most GOP insiders wanted desperately to believe because there were no alternatives). Many of the clubs essentially became speaker’s bureaus or lunch clubs with a Republican affiliated theme – noble and important aspects of any community and any political party, but generally not the means of accumulation of political power. Others deteriorated to the point of meaninglessness. A fewer number continued to run viable ground organizations, or mutated into something altogether different.

Generally, I believe for a political organization to have real pull it has to be able to demonstrate either the capability of raising and spending reasonable amounts of money (examples: California Republican Assembly, New Majority, or San Diego County Lincoln… Read More

RANCHO CUCAMONGA — It may be Halloween, but that guy in the Arnold Schwarzenegger suitwho just left the local GOP Headquarters actually wasn’t trick-or-treating. Arnold stopped by to thank San Bernardino Countyvolunteers for their hard work and to highlight the strong role grassroots volunteers are playing in the special election. State SenatorBob Duttonand Second District County Supervisor and Central Committee Vice-Chairman Paul Biane gave the chief executive a tour of the operation. The Governor observed 45 volunteers preparing precinct kits and making phone calls to High Desert and Inland Valley voters with messages supporting the Governor’s initiatives. He showed particular interest in the precinct maps, which depict the Party’s 400 precinct captains throughout the vast, 22,000 square-mile county. He also inspected walksheets, scripts, and mail pieces. And helistened to some of the volunteers making advocacy calls on his behalf, while trying not to… Read More

Shocking news from the Schwarzenegger Administration.4 of the5 appointments announced for the Los Angeles County Superior Court are actually registered Republicans. See thepress release here.Amazing.Since the Governor has been making appointments in Los Angeles County they have been dominated by Democrats.A complaint I have made often to anyone who will listen.

Just to throw me off, the Gov did appoint a Democrat in Riverside County to the bench at the same time. I guess there aren’t any Republican attorneys in one of the fastest growing Republican areas of the state.… Read More

MOTHER’S MILK – New Column I’m pleased to announce that the FlashReport has a new featured columnist — "MOTHER." Mother is the pen-name for our new correspondence who will be bringing us regular updates on the goings-on in the world of political fundraising in California. I encourage you to read her first column today in the FlashReport. At the bottom of the column is a link in case you have insight, gossip, or little-known exploits or exploitations in California political fundraising that you want to share with Mom.

NEW PROP. 75 AD – Check it out below! Loyal FR reader Don Ringe happens to be the media consultant for the Paycheck Protection Campaign — and sent along to me a copy of the new ad they have starting today. Want to watch it? It is attached to the bottom of today’s… Read More

[UPDATE: A friend has jogged my faulty memory. While Ray, did, in fact endorse all of the candidates below, the ORDER of endorsement was as follows: DEVORE (where he should have stopped), then CRISTICH, then ZIPPI, then WAGNER. So we should be watching Dale’s website to see if there is a pattern… Flash]

Hmmm. From reading Mike Spence’s post just below this one, it appears Ray Haynes ‘dual endorsed’ both Joel Anderson AND Debbie Byer in the GOP Primary for the 77th AD… WAIT! There is a moderate Republican running in that primary, too, right? Jack Dale of Santee, I believe.

I think that someone should go check and see if Ray endorsed Dale FIRST.

You see, in the 70th Assembly District where I live, there was a very contentious primary for the GOP Assembly nomination. One of the candidates in that primary, Cristi Cristich, ran for the office with a record of having… Read More

Why wait until the last minute? It’s time to start the post-election spin….

I don’t pretend to know who’s poll numbers are right. The Public Policy Institute and the Schwarzenegger team seem to be polling on different planets, or at least using vastly different samples and techniques. If I had to guess, though, Proposition 76, the governor’s budget reform initiative, is pretty much dead. Propositions 74 and 75, the measures on teacher tenure and paycheck protection, could go either way. And Prop 77, the redistricting initiative, looks like a long shot but is still pretty much of a wild card, given the cross-partisan nature of its support.

Mike Murphy, the governor’s lead consultant, has been quoted saying that passing just one of the four of the initiatives would be a victory for Schwarzenegger. That doesn’t sound like a campaign that’s confident of winning three or four of them. But for the most part, Murphy’s probably right.

Passing teacher tenure reform but losing the other three would be a very thin reed on which Arnold could claim success: it wouldn’t be a believable claim… Read More