The legislature took a break after congratulating each other on passing the budget; the finance people immediately announced that next year’s deficit is already somewhere between $8 billion and $20 billion (That is before we know the outcome of the various lawsuits about the shenanigans they included in this "balanced" budget.); and the Governor called a special session for the fall to take up the findings of the Commission on the 21st Century Economy, which is capitol-speak for "tax code change commission." The Commission has been tasked with identifying revisions to the tax code that would stimulate the state’s economy while remaining revenue neutral, and the Governor now, without knowing what recommendations will be made, is asking the legislature to consider the proposed changes.

Coverage of the Commission’s debates has focused on the "volatility" of state tax revenue, which is just silly. Taxes may indeed be volatile, depending on what is going on in the world’s economy at any one time. Ask any businessperson in the state about the volatility of their revenue; it is simply a fact of doing business. What… Read More

I just read a funny line from a Jack Sieglock news release touting his fund raising prowess and name ID. With just seven donors to his 2010 bid for the Assembly District 10 seat, Sieglock has topped the $100,000 mark ($100,000 came from himself).

But my favorite line in the release reads:

"Moreover, since the June 30th deadline, Sieglock has brought in an additional $50,000 in contributions and commitments."

Perhaps I have cause to be angry at my friend Dana Reed, one of the top political lawyers in the state who usually keeps me posted on important new developments in campaign finance law even though he rarely gets to send me a bill. Dana, has the FPPC ruled that candidates must track "commitments" to their campaigns? I doubt it. What a nightmare that would be.

I am a donor to Sieglock opponent Paul Hegyi so I doubt the Sieglock campaign will take advice from me. But this is a good lesson for other campaigns. Promoting commitments in a news release does not pass the smell test.… Read More

Some hi-lites from the last week…

Trading Traffic for Carpetbagging (or trafficking in carpetbags)… The first question out of several political watchers’ mouths in response to State Assemblywoman Lori Saldana’s intent to run against County Supervisor Ron Roberts next year was, "But, she doesn’t live in the district."

Problem solved. Last week, Saldana moved from Supe Pam Slater-Price’s district three to the fourth district, citing "traffic" concerns, and thus setting up a challenge to Roberts. The Union-Trib pol blog notes that Saldana herself has been critical in the past of such "moves" on the part of others. It’s worth the read.

But. let’s face it. When one is limited to six years in the assembly and — if a seat is available — eight in the senate, no amount of traffic or carpetbagging should reasonably stand in the way of a county supervisorial seat, where history shows incumbents enjoy… Read More

If David Bejarano’s fundraising receipts over a two-month period are any indication, the San Diego County sheriff’s race is shaping up to be the local campaign to watch in 2010.

As reported in filings provided by his campaign team, former San Diego Police Chief Bejarano raised a whopping $100,000 in the first six months of the year, with nearly $90,000 in cash-on-hand after expenses, and a little over $11,000 in yet-to-be paid or accrued expenses.

Although the required statements show fundraising efforts between January 1 and June 30, even more striking is that his first contribution was received in early May, meaning that Bejarano’s haul is really over only a two-month period.

Campaign disclosure reports were due at the Registrar of Voters offices by 5 p.m. yesterday (or postmarked by that time), so the other major contenders’ fundraising prowess will be known in the next fews days. (Any candidates that would like to provide the FlashReport a heads up as a comparison, we’re always an email away, otherwise we’ll just pester the ROV come Monday and… Read More

How embarrassing and appropriate that Assemblyman Dan Logue is seen in the video below having to apologize to a California business owner for what state government has done to him and others like him… … Read More

Quote of the day: "No man’s life, liberty, or property are safe while the legislature is in session." – Mark Twain 1866 Samuel Clemens would be comforted to know that his life, liberty, and property are now safe for the next 5 weeks as the House of Representatives has adjourned for the traditional August recess. The Senate is in for another week, but it can do little damage without our concurrence. Here is my brief synopsis of the state of some current issues:

Healthcare: As of this writing, the last committee in the House to mark-up the ‘socialized health care bill,’ Energy and Commerce, is still meeting. So, there isn’t much I can tell you right now. But one thing you ought to know is that I am a cosponsor of a resolution that says that if the bill passes, Members of Congress should be placed onto the government plan. Currently there are 66 cosponsors of the resolution, all Republicans. So, no one who is going to vote to force you into government run health care is willing to commit that they too… Read More

Generally, when a new “public opinion survey” comes out, I am pretty cynical about it. Having had a lot of exposure to the mechanics behind such surveys, and having had a lot of opportunities over the years to talk extensively with public opinion research specialists, I can say that without any hesitation that what comes out of a survey depends greatly on what you put into a survey. Or put another way – if you ask a slanted question, you will get a slanted answer.

The latest survey out from the Public Policy Institute of California presents a great example of manipulating those being surveyed to skew the results in a particular direction. The issue is on global warming and AB 32 – but first let me walk you through the broader survey manipulation issue…

You can write a whole book (I’m sure someone has) on all of the ways to manipulate the outcome of public opinion surveys. But one way that these kinds of surveys can fall short is that do not sufficiently educate the person being questioned before asking the question – producing a meaningless response. A hypothetical example of… Read More

Generally, when a new “public opinion survey” comes out, I am pretty cynical about it. Having had a lot of exposure to the mechanics behind such surveys, and having had a lot of opportunities over the years to talk extensively with public opinion research specialists, I can say that without any hesitation that what comes out of a survey depends greatly on what you put into a survey. Or put another way – if you ask a slanted question, you will get a slanted answer.

The latest survey out from the Public Policy Institute of California presents a great example of manipulating those being surveyed to skew the results in a particular direction. The issue is on global warming and AB 32 – but first let me walk you through the broader survey manipulation issue…

You can write a whole book (I’m sure someone has) on all of the ways to manipulate the outcome of public opinion surveys. But one way that these kinds of surveys can fall short is that do not sufficiently educate the person being questioned before asking the question – producing a meaningless response. A hypothetical example of… Read More